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Scouting Xavier at St. Louis!!!
By
Andy Mac Williams,
2/22/2010
Saint Louis may be the most suprising team to the upside in the better than advertised Atlantic 10. The Billikens are 18-8 overall; 9-3 in the conference (solo 4th place ahead of Charlotte, Rhode Island, Dayton and Duquesne); 14-1 at home (the new noisy Chaifetz Arena); and on a six game win streak (6-0 in February). SLU does it with sticky defense (59PPG allowed - 9th nationally - 26% FG Defense vs 3 point tries - #1 in the NCAA). They block alot of shots. They dare you to trigger "3s" early in possessions. The Bills milk the shot clock on offense running the opposition through a million screens then trigger a late 3 pointer or lay-up (like Butler). They are frustrating to play!!
Coach Rick Majerus may be an odd duck but he can sure teach the game. He has no Seniors or Juniors - the youngest roster in Division 1. Veteran guards Kevin Lisch and Tommy Liddell are gone. Six freshman play 12 minutes or more. Two Frosh start. Saint Louis thrives in close games even though they are terrible from the foul line (60% - 322nd in D-1).
Sunday SLU blew-out UMass on the road 69-56 but in the 4 previous games they'd trailed by 10 or more at some point and rallied to win all 4. Their average score is 63-59. They've played 4 overtime games in the league.
Wednesday night's game (8PM Cincy time - Fox Sports Ohio) should be sold-out and raucous. They're labeling it a "Billiken Blizzard". That's SLU's version of a white-out, I guess.
Coach Majerus has injected international flavor in his line-up with two young Australians starting. 6-8 240 pound Cody Ellis gained elligibility in January. He shoots the "3" well (12PPG - 6 rebounds). 6-3 Christain Salecich is from down under also (7PPG - 2 reb).
We know about the 3 sophomore starters. Kwamain Mitchell is the PG - averaging 16PPG. He scores 70% of his points after halftime and specializes in buzzer beater shot making. 6-9 Willie Reed is a beast inside (12PPG - 8 plus reb - 2 blocks). 6-3 Kyle Cassity scored 16 at UMass. He's a wing who does it all. Brian Conklin at 6-6 has started on and off for two years. He plays inside.
Frosh Cory Remekun and Jon Smith (Grove City-near Columbus) play inside also. Both deliver the defense. Justin Jordan is the back-up guard. He was a prolific HS scorer in Fort Wayne.
Xavier murdered SLU twice last season at Cintas and in Atlantic City. They bottled up PG Mitchell and boxed out star forward Reed. The scores were 70-44 and 66-47. Patience is the operative word for Xavier. The Bills will run their offense no matter what. X has to fight thru the screens and stay solid and engaged and limit them to one shot.
On offense the Muskies need to feed the post and dominate inside. Reed will get into foul trouble if X goes at him. Falling in love with the seemingly easy early 3 pointer can doom a team at SLU. Trying to force fast breaks is trouble too.
XU knows how to win away after signature "Ws" at Florida and Charlotte. Saint Louis is quirkier but no different really. Any thing approaching the efforts at Gainesville and Charlotte should add up to a Muskie victory.
The A-10 regular season is down to two weeks. Richmond leads at 11-2. They rest all week before playing X at Cintas Sunday afternoon (1PM-ESPN2). The Spiders finish up with Dayton at home and at Charlotte. Very Tough!!
Temple is 10-2 tied with Xavier. The Owls have the tie-breaker over the Muskies with that win in Philly. TU closes out against Dayton, at La Salle, at Saint Louis and home to GW.
XU is at SLU, home to Richmond, at Fordham and home against St Bonnies on Senior Day.
Saint Louis at 9-3 has X, Duquesne and Temple at home and Dayton on the road. Fifth place Charlotte ( 8-4) has St Joe's at home then GW and URI away followed by Richmond home. 6th place URI (8-5) is at St Bonnies, home to Charlotte and at UMass. 7th place Dayton(7-5) is at Temple,home UMass,at Richmond and home St Louis.
The Muskies are playing well. They could run the table and go 14-2 in the A-10. Temple might still tie them and rate the top seed in Atlantic City. The #1 seed plays their quarterfinal game at noon Friday March 12. That's a big rest advantage because the semis Saturday are in the afternoon - not at night. The #1 seed might have to play Duquesne though and the Dukes are on another late season roll. Who knows?
Saint Louis may work its late game magic and tag the Muskies with an ugly low scoring loss. Richmond has the veteran guards plus athletic big guys and a Top 25 Rating. They play Chris Mooney's disciplined pass happy Princeton offense. They beat XU last season in Richmond and they'll have a full week to prepare.
Is that 30 game Muskie A-10 home win streak in peril?? I doubt it, but maybe?? I like Xavier's chances the final week at Fordham and home against St Bonnies. Barring a shocker that adds up to a worst case scenario of 12-4 and a sure first round A-10 Tournament bye and a certain NCAA bid.
The best case scenario (4 wins to end the regular season plus a good run in Atlantic City) opens up some very pleasant NCAA seeding possibilities but let's take it one at a time. Beat SLU Wednesday even though it will feel like a trip to the orthodontist without novacaine.
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