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Bracket Set for A-10 Quarterfinals in Atlantic City!!
By
Andy Mac Williams,
3/10/2010
Despite three straight #1 seeds, Xavier hasn't faired so well the past three seasons in AC. Quarterfinal wins (Dayton, Dayton and Saint Louis) have been followed by Semifinal losses (Rhode Island, St Joe's and Temple). In 2010, the Muskies try their luck as a #2 seed. Again for the fourth straight year going into the conference tourney XU is certain of an NCAA bid. So what"s in doubt?? Seed, whether they play Thursday-Saturday or Friday-Sunday and game location!!
What's possible?? Maybe as high as a 4 seed in Buffalo or Milwaukee Friday-Sunday. That would probably require 3 wins at Boardwalk Hall in about 40 hours starting Friday night against Dayton (6:30PM-CBS College Sports).
The Flyers fell to a 7 seed by losing 5 of their last 7 and finishing 8-8 in the regular season. They started to redeem themselves Tuesday night at UD Arena-beating 10 seed GW 70-60 in a Play-in game. Less than 7,000 showed up -- smallest crowd in over 40 years.
The Flyers stabilized themselves, making late free throws and scoring in their last 7 possessions to snap a 55 all tie with 6 minutes left. Their 4 seniors stepped up. Marcus Johnson scored 16. He's been a streaky scorer all season. Kurt Huelsman made clutch FTs. Rob Lowrey nailed a huge "3" and London Warren delivered solid defense.
UD sufferred thru a brutal final week with a melt down road loss at Richmond and a Senior Night debacle of a defeat at UD Arena to St Louis. Ever since early February blow-out wins over Xavier (90-65) and Charlotte (75-47), Dayton has struggled to score consistently. They've lost some buzzer beaters. They scored just 41 points in a loss at Temple.
3-pointers and free throws have been problematical. There have been too many fouls defensively thus too many enemy FTs. Still UD is 20-11 with a 49 RPI. They continue to dominate on both boards (plus 8 in rebounding over the last 12 games).
The Flyers play 4 seniors regularly. They have athletic small forwards Chris Wright and Chris Johnson. Coach Brian Gregory uses an 11 player rotation.
Dayton is desperate too. They need that A-10 automatic bid to make the NCAA field and salvage what was supposed to be a dominating season for them. X and UD split in the regular season.
The Muskies won 78-74 in January at Cintas. The Flyers clobbered X on the boards 51-34 but XU shot it better, made more FTs and took better care of the ball. Dayton star Chris Wright was limited to 14 minutes because of foul trouble and Brian Gregory's weird substitution patterns. Dante Jackson was MVP (19 points). He shines versus UD. Jordan Crawford hit some amazingly tough shots down the stretch. Terrell Holloway made 13 of 14 FTs. The XU bench contributed nicely.
At UD Arena in early February, the Flyers rolled 90-65. X trailed 17-3 early. Jason Love and Kenny Frease got into immediate foul trouble. Dayton won the rebound battle again but also shot it better and got to the FT line more. Johnson and Wright combined for 35 points. The UD bench outscored the XU subs 37-6.
X has won 7 in a row since that Dayton wake-up call. Jamel McLean has emerged to compliment Jason Love inside. McLean has averaged a double-double. X still has match-up problems against Johnson and Wright.
Brad Redford's status is questionable with a sore hip. Brian Walsh may rate more minutes. His better size and physical defense might help. It's a heck of a Quarterfinal match-up! If the game were in Dayton, I'd be really worried!! XU has improved steadily since Dayton 2.
X needs to pressure the UD guards. Neither Rob Lowrey nor Marcus Johnson nor Mickey Perry are great ball handlers. London Warren can beat you off the dribble but he can't shoot. X has the luxury of two complete Point guards in Holloway and Mark Lyons. That's a huge edge. Crawford has also improved defensively. Count on him to get some steals and deflections if UD is loose with the ball.
XU has a big scoring advantage down on the block. Both Love and McLean can finish with power around the basket and so can Kenny Frease. The guards must deliver the ball consistently and let the 3 pointers evolve later in the shot clock from inside-out ball movement. I like Xavier on the neutral court. Dayton will be pressing for the "must" win.
1 seed Temple plays St. Bonnies in the noon Quarterfinal Friday. SBU has won 5 of 6 and beat Duquesne 83-71 in the Tuesday Play-in game. TU is streaking and confident. They have won 2 straight A-10 tournies in AC. SBU would have to rain in "3s" and pray a lot.
At 2:30 Friday, it's 4 seed St Louis against #5 URI. The Rams took out St Joe's Tuesday 87-76. SLU is playing Rick Majerus's system well. I'll take the Billikens.
The 9PM Friday game is UMass against Richmond. Mass upset Charlotte 59-56 Tuesday on the road. Richmond is an NCAA lock for good reason with their veteran line-up and funky style. They're 24-7 for a reason! I see XU against Richmond Saturday at 3:30 and Temple-SLU at 1PM.
If Xavier can run the table,they would reap a nice RPI bonanza with wins over Dayton (49),Richmond (25) and Temple (15). That could elevate XU's RPI into the low teens from the current 21. That might net a 4 seed and a favorable geographical placement in Milwaukee or Buffalo.
Certainly a Friday-Sunday bracket would be preferable from a rest stand point as the A-10 Final is 1PM Sunday to accommodate CBS.
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