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Scouting Dayton!!!
By
Andy Mac Williams,
1/28/2013
The Muskies need a win in the worst way when they host backyard rival Dayton late Wednesday nite at Cintas (9PM-CBS Sports Network). Xavier's lost 2 straight on the road (at Charlotte,at St Joe's) while UD has won back-to-back home games against A-10 bottom feeders Fordham and Duquesne. X is 4-2 in the league in a 5 way tie for second with VCU, LaSalle, GW and Charlotte-a half game behind Butler(4-1).
The Flyers started A-10 play with 3 tough losses(at VCU,Butler,at LaSalle). Second year coach Archie Miller used his bye week to refocus his Dayton team. There seemed to be a disconnect between his veterans and his talented 4 man freshman class. UD had turned the ball over 62 times in the three conference defeats. Foul trouble had gummed up the rotation.
Archie in true Miller family fashion used his time wisely and Dayton pounded Fordham and Duquesne. The next hurdle is XU. UD hasn't beaten X in Cincinnati since 1981. That's almost a third of a century!!! The streak is 27 games. Dayton came close last Feb. at Cintas. X won 86-83 in OT. Overall,the Flyers are 12-7,2-3 in the A-10-tied for 10th with St Joe's,Temple and Fordham. UD is 1-3 on the road with a nice non-conference win at Alabama followed by losses at USC,VCU and LaSalle.
Cintas will be their sternest road test. Dayton has the edge in fire power(73PPG). They shoot the "3" at almost 40%. They get to the foul line a bunch and make 70% there. They are plus 9 on the boards in their 5 Atlantic 10 games. Turnovers have been high. They depend alot on their freshmen. UD starts Kevin Dillard at PG. He's a senior and of All League caliber (15PPG-5A-87%FT shooter). X has had trouble keeping him out of the lane. The shooting guard is Georgetown transfer Vee Sanford. He's a bigger guard who has been playing much better lately. Vee is tough off the dribble with his pull-up jumper.
6-5 junior Devin Oliver is a hard worker at 8.5 reb and 10PPG. Sr Josh Benson(6-9,230) is back from knee surgery. He's struggled with foul trouble but played well vs Duquesne. The 5th starter is frosh Dyshawn Pierre(8PPG-5REB). He's 6-6 and a good shooter. 6-9 frosh Jalen Robinson(Columbus Northland HS) has played well inside off the bench. His HS teammate Devin Scott(6-9) is earning more minutes. LSU transfer Matt Derenbecker (6-7) is a wing 3 point sniper (23-43 from deep over the last 11 games). He's the guy who koed Butler star Rotnie Clark with a careless push from behind. Frosh PG Khari Price has played well subbing for Dillard but he injured a thigh vs Duquesne and may be iffy for XU.
Dayton is trying to play more inside- out emphasizing Benson and Pierre and Robinson around the rim. Post Matt Kavanaugh(A-10's Most Improved Player last season) is suspended for the year but will be re-admitted next season. 3 point aces Chris Johnson, Paul Williams, Josh Parker and Luke Fabrizius graduated. Archie reportedly has a written contract with his players targeting two wins in their 4 trips to Cintas. He'll need to get a ton of mileage from his frosh to get that done this season.
Dillard is UD's heart beat. Who guards him and who does he guard? Both UD and XU are man to man defenders. Is it Dillard vs Semaj Christon? Will Landen Amos get a shot at Dillard? Both teams sport strong rebounding numbers. Who wants it more?? XU needs Jeff Robinson to step up plus a healthy Justin Martin. Travis Taylor will be hard for Josh Benson to guard with his speed and slippery post moves. Hopefully,Brad Redford is over his quick hitting stomach flu. X needs his 15PPG (first 4 A-10 games) not 2.5P he's scored over the last 2.
A spate of Dayton turnovers would help. 15 to 18 fastbreak points might get the Muskies to 70. They can't beat UD by scoring in the 40's or 50's and if the game is wildly full court in the high 70's or 80's,it's advantage UD.The Flyers have a decent chance of winning and snapping the streak,but their youth may bite them in the butt. X needs to feed off the home court-limit turnovers-compete on the boards and get easy hoops off Dayton mistakes.
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