THE GONZAGA RULE

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edgecliff hall
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THE GONZAGA RULE

Postby edgecliff hall » Sun Apr 02, 2017 2:12 am

We saw it tonight. Okay, CM and Miller Brothers and Gino and all you other coaches. Tight game. Clock ticking down. You manage to get ahead by three. Clock ticking down. They've got the ball. Clock hits six seconds. AT SIX SECONDS OR LESS YOU FOUL TO PREVENT THEM FROM SHOOTING A THREE. You all know what that three looks like. It makes your heart go cold. Some wise-guy kid in a red suit gets himself clear, WIDE OPEN and launches a three. Perfect Arch. Time freezes. You know the thing is goin' in. Like it happened yesterday. You know it's goin' in. You know it's goin' in. It goes in. All your legs have said goodnight. All your big men havel fouled out. You're goin' to overtime, you lucky guy. The Fat Lady is singin' in your grim dry mouth. AND HER BREATH IS TOXIC.
What you need to remember is THE GONZAGA RULE. Sure they line up for a foul shot, They might even make two. But the wise guy kid in the red suit is just standin' there, breathin' hard. Disarmed.
Note that Mark Few doesn't have to agonize in this situation. It's all been thought out in advance, back in Spokane.
Anti-Homer
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Re: THE GONZAGA RULE

Postby Anti-Homer » Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:04 am

edgecliff hall wrote:We saw it tonight. Okay, CM and Miller Brothers and Gino and all you other coaches. Tight game. Clock ticking down. You manage to get ahead by three. Clock ticking down. They've got the ball. Clock hits six seconds. AT SIX SECONDS OR LESS YOU FOUL TO PREVENT THEM FROM SHOOTING A THREE. You all know what that three looks like. It makes your heart go cold. Some wise-guy kid in a red suit gets himself clear, WIDE OPEN and launches a three. Perfect Arch. Time freezes. You know the thing is goin' in. Like it happened yesterday. You know it's goin' in. You know it's goin' in. It goes in. All your legs have said goodnight. All your big men havel fouled out. You're goin' to overtime, you lucky guy. The Fat Lady is singin' in your grim dry mouth. AND HER BREATH IS TOXIC.
What you need to remember is THE GONZAGA RULE. Sure they line up for a foul shot, They might even make two. But the wise guy kid in the red suit is just standin' there, breathin' hard. Disarmed.
Note that Mark Few doesn't have to agonize in this situation. It's all been thought out in advance, back in Spokane.


I agree with this, but many coaches still don't employ this. I think the situation with the NC Oregon game is why. NC had a 1 point lead with 6 seconds to go, missed the second free throw, and got the rebound. Joel Berry was fouled with 4 seconds to go, and he missed the second rebound, but unbelievably, Oregon couldn't secure the rebound again, and NC won the game.

However, if you can't rebound the ball in those situations, you probably don't deserve to win.
edgecliff hall
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Re: THE GONZAGA RULE

Postby edgecliff hall » Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:12 am

Right.
oldhoopster2
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Re: THE GONZAGA RULE

Postby oldhoopster2 » Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:31 am

However in the West Virginia game, Few elected not to foul. WV did not get off a shot at the end, so it worked out that time.
Jesseandrippers
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Re: THE GONZAGA RULE

Postby Jesseandrippers » Sun Apr 02, 2017 8:57 pm

This topic has made me sick to my stomach for 10 years. 2007 XU vs OSU is the perfect example. YOU HAVE TO FOUL!
xu koop scoop
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Re: THE GONZAGA RULE

Postby xu koop scoop » Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:16 am

S Carolina blew it TWICE. Needed to launch a 3 with 8 to 10 seconds & hope for rebound if it misses. They blew it again by missing 2nd FT. If he makes 2nd FT it is a 1 pt game and you might steal the inbounds & win. I remember circa 1990s - Xu vs Marguette and the Warriors up 3 with about 2 seconds. Marquette inbounds & Jamie Gladden steals it & makes a 3 to go OT. Still one of my fave memories. :ugeek:
tacitus
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Re: THE GONZAGA RULE

Postby tacitus » Mon Apr 03, 2017 2:28 am

Good thing to have as an option, bad thing to be a "rule".

If you do it all or most of the time, then the opposing team will try to time a shot with the expected foul.

I think this is the fear of doing this, that instead of forcing a bad shot, you give the opposing team a chance to tie it at the foul line.

So I think that most coaches would rather just tell their guys to lock down on D and not foul. And I think they do so well aware of the fact that most of the time, the team up three wins by forcing a long, contested three. (Probably not enough data to say how effective fouling while up three works...)

However, if it is something you haven't done all season, and then in the tournament you do it two games in a row, then the other team might be expecting it. So you might be able to force them into a bad shot by "faking" a foul.

Either way, this is not something I would recommend as the go-to play when down three on defense with under ten to play.
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longliveskip
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Re: THE GONZAGA RULE

Postby longliveskip » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:10 am

i equate this to how some people play blackjack (if you know the rules, then it makes sense). some people will hit with a 12 when the dealer shows a 2. some people will stay. all about personal preference, how the cards have been falling, etc.

some coaches employ the tactic. some coaches believe in just playing good D.
tacitus
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Re: THE GONZAGA RULE

Postby tacitus » Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:45 am

longliveskip wrote:i equate this to how some people play blackjack (if you know the rules, then it makes sense). some people will hit with a 12 when the dealer shows a 2. some people will stay. all about personal preference, how the cards have been falling, etc.

some coaches employ the tactic. some coaches believe in just playing good D.


I guess you could say it is a matter of preference, in the sense that it probably doesn't make much difference with regard to winning and losing probability.

This is interesting: http://c510383.r83.cf2.rackcdn.com/ath/ ... es/up3.pdf

This is more interesting: http://kenpom.com/blog/yet-another-stud ... when-up-3/

Even more interesting: http://www.espn.com/blog/truehoop/post/ ... ew-insight

Essentially, we have an observation bias. We remember the OSU and Wisconsin last year where we got beat on buzzer-beater threes. We all want to go back and foul (or go back and hit another free throw). But we do not remember the many games where we chose to play defense up 3 with under 10 to play and won the game. Chances are that there are more of those games, and we just don't remember them, because we won, likely by two more possessions in the end.
Let's March!
longliveskip
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Re: THE GONZAGA RULE

Postby longliveskip » Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:49 am

tacitus wrote:
longliveskip wrote:i equate this to how some people play blackjack (if you know the rules, then it makes sense). some people will hit with a 12 when the dealer shows a 2. some people will stay. all about personal preference, how the cards have been falling, etc.

some coaches employ the tactic. some coaches believe in just playing good D.


I guess you could say it is a matter of preference, in the sense that it probably doesn't make much difference with regard to winning and losing probability.

This is interesting: http://c510383.r83.cf2.rackcdn.com/ath/ ... es/up3.pdf

This is more interesting: http://kenpom.com/blog/yet-another-stud ... when-up-3/

Even more interesting: http://www.espn.com/blog/truehoop/post/ ... ew-insight

Essentially, we have an observation bias. We remember the OSU and Wisconsin last year where we got beat on buzzer-beater threes. We all want to go back and foul (or go back and hit another free throw). But we do not remember the many games where we chose to play defense up 3 with under 10 to play and won the game. Chances are that there are more of those games, and we just don't remember them, because we won, likely by two more possessions in the end.


to be fair, we weren't fouling last year. the game was tied.

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