What is with the BPI vs. RPI

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clevelandmuskie
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What is with the BPI vs. RPI

Postby clevelandmuskie » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:01 pm

Obviously we are experiencing a great regular season as XU positions itself for a High Seed in the Tourney. Great to see our RPI is now 3 which is probably the highest ever. The BPI has come into vogue the last couple years and we are currently #14 as we are far behind UC and also sitting behind Wichita St and a couple others with low RPI. We were actually #10 two weeks ago and somehow have dropped since winning 4 straight. So 2 questions - which is more important RPI or BPI and why is there such a difference in the rankings, not just for XU but for many teams?
lionelchalmers0
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Re: What is with the BPI vs. RPI

Postby lionelchalmers0 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:20 pm

Neither is probably "more important." Classically the committee uses the rpi more but apparently they are using all of the other ones more.

In terms of how BPI and RPI are different: rpi is very simple. Basically your winning percentage, your opponents in percentage, and your opponents opponents winning percentage are calculate out to rank you and your rating and your SOS.

BPI is similar but differs in a few ways. One is they do some weird stuff where if a guy is injured they somehow factor in his minutes lost and losses "hurt" you less while he's missing. Two is they weight home wins a little less than road wins.

The thing they do that is stupid is they weight wins by margin. This would seem to make sense except doesn't really account for difficulty. A win by 30 for example is worth 20% more points than a 15 point win. So when a team like uc has a non con schedule ranked 196 and pile up lots of 35 point wins it helps a lot.

Meanwhile we're beating wiscy on the road, playing tough big east conference away gains and gutting out close wins, and getting less points than uc gets for annhilating ucf by 40.
WCWIII
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Re: What is with the BPI vs. RPI

Postby WCWIII » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:32 am

One of the key cornerstones of the RPI is that it purposely does not take margin of victory into consideration. The holy NCAA did not want a system that might be impacted by running up (or shaving) points. The system would otherwise be mixed in with gambling and gangsters. In principle, RPI only matters on the Selection day ... and only for the teams the committee is considering. But like all metrics, it's fun to talk about it throughout the season. (link to site that forecasts RPI to end of season).

Other systems try to be predictive of who would win match-ups. Systems also get mixed in with those that try to predict the S-curve (i.e. the placing and seeding of teams). Sagarin, Massey, KenPom etc. use variables like margin of victory which do help those systems be more predictive. ESPN decided to invent it's own similar system because it could and because it could advertise it (the BPI) - I dismiss it totally because of it's commercial ties. (link to multiple systems) and (link to NCAA seed predicting).

The RPI and it's use is not a bad system. A Selection Committee gets team sheets with a bunch of information that helps guide them to placing teams in the tourney. The new RPI-tier system that takes home/neutral/away games into account probably helps guide the Committee's member's eyes better than without that distinction.

With all that said, how cool is that our RPI currently stands at No. 2, projects to be No. 3 and that, if the season ended today, we would be a 1 seed. But it comes down to games ... beat Creighton!
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olsingledigit
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Re: What is with the BPI vs. RPI

Postby olsingledigit » Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:41 pm

WCWIII wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:32 am
One of the key cornerstones of the RPI is that it purposely does not take margin of victory into consideration. The holy NCAA did not want a system that might be impacted by running up (or shaving) points. The system would otherwise be mixed in with gambling and gangsters. In principle, RPI only matters on the Selection day ... and only for the teams the committee is considering. But like all metrics, it's fun to talk about it throughout the season. (link to site that forecasts RPI to end of season).

Other systems try to be predictive of who would win match-ups. Systems also get mixed in with those that try to predict the S-curve (i.e. the placing and seeding of teams). Sagarin, Massey, KenPom etc. use variables like margin of victory which do help those systems be more predictive. ESPN decided to invent it's own similar system because it could and because it could advertise it (the BPI) - I dismiss it totally because of it's commercial ties. (link to multiple systems) and (link to NCAA seed predicting).

The RPI and it's use is not a bad system. A Selection Committee gets team sheets with a bunch of information that helps guide them to placing teams in the tourney. The new RPI-tier system that takes home/neutral/away games into account probably helps guide the Committee's member's eyes better than without that distinction.

With all that said, how cool is that our RPI currently stands at No. 2, projects to be No. 3 and that, if the season ended today, we would be a 1 seed. But it comes down to games ... beat Creighton!
It comes down to WINNING games!
Dressed to the Nines - Last of the LHS Single Digits - Dedicated to John "The Beer Spiller" McCormick, my son-in-law who passed June, 2016 at age 44. Long time Xavier fanatic and friend of many Lew Hirt Members. RIP Mac Strong! We miss you.
mumuskie87
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Re: What is with the BPI vs. RPI

Postby mumuskie87 » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:53 am

olsingledigit wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:41 pm
WCWIII wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:32 am
One of the key cornerstones of the RPI is that it purposely does not take margin of victory into consideration. The holy NCAA did not want a system that might be impacted by running up (or shaving) points. The system would otherwise be mixed in with gambling and gangsters. In principle, RPI only matters on the Selection day ... and only for the teams the committee is considering. But like all metrics, it's fun to talk about it throughout the season. (link to site that forecasts RPI to end of season).

Other systems try to be predictive of who would win match-ups. Systems also get mixed in with those that try to predict the S-curve (i.e. the placing and seeding of teams). Sagarin, Massey, KenPom etc. use variables like margin of victory which do help those systems be more predictive. ESPN decided to invent it's own similar system because it could and because it could advertise it (the BPI) - I dismiss it totally because of it's commercial ties. (link to multiple systems) and (link to NCAA seed predicting).

The RPI and it's use is not a bad system. A Selection Committee gets team sheets with a bunch of information that helps guide them to placing teams in the tourney. The new RPI-tier system that takes home/neutral/away games into account probably helps guide the Committee's member's eyes better than without that distinction.

With all that said, how cool is that our RPI currently stands at No. 2, projects to be No. 3 and that, if the season ended today, we would be a 1 seed. But it comes down to games ... beat Creighton!
It comes down to WINNING games!
More specifically - winning games in the Tournament!! At minimum, at least 4 straight.
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gundun
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Re: What is with the BPI vs. RPI

Postby gundun » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:39 pm

Gosh, our BPI must suck because we have 8 wins by 6 points or less. Let's win 6 games in the Dance by a total of 9 nines and have folks rethink this stupid BPI stat.
clevelandmuskie
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Re: What is with the BPI vs. RPI

Postby clevelandmuskie » Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:47 pm

Agree that margin of victory (think UC's cupcake schedule) is such a dominate fact. Lets just keep winning.

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