X-lucidity wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:57 pm
AH, I disagree that Steele made an obvious blunder not fouling down 4 with 50 seconds. Sure many coaches will, but many other good coaches will let it ride one more possession. The shot clock was under 23 seconds by that point. So they had to shoot around the 30 sec mark. If they miss, we can look for a quick 2 then begin fouling and extend the game. I agree that your point is valid and that likely 50+ % of coaches would begin fouling then. Just saying it is not the clear-cut brain-dead blunder you assert. We played tough and continue to exhibit courage. Naji played terrifically and even unselfish most of the night. His one late "hero-ball" moment was unfortunate mostly because of when it occurred. Both team fought hard and what an atmosphere the last 12 minutes was. We see our boo-boo's and poor decisions, if you were a Friar fan, you could rattle off many by them. Ultimately, even brushing aside James' 2 missed FT's out of the TO, T-Jones missing a point blank shot that would have put us up one, etc, etc., it came down to Tandy rimming in & out a beautifully stroked 3, then Pipkins swishing his pressure packed 3. That little stretch was a 6pt difference and broke the game their way. To fight back, on the road versus one of the hottest teams in the country, I leave tonight with head held high. Bring that to the court Saturday and we will be just fine....
I respectfully disagree with you. After Naji's air ball and Providence's t.o., I looked at the clock, because I knew and feared that if Steele wasn't going to foul against Butler down 7 with 1:10 or so to go, he sure as hell wasn't going to do it down 4 with 55 seconds to go. There were two things wrong with Steele's strategy. First of all, even if Providence missed it, X had 25 seconds to come down and hit a three. We shoot 30% as a team, Providence was looking for it, and the 2nd best three point shooter was injured. Odds definitely were not in favor of a make. Let's say the improbable happened, and X made it, with 15 seconds left. Providence would throw the ball to Duke or Pipkins, who shoot 80% and 90% respectively from the line, and forcing X to foul them. Odds are they make them. That means X would have to come down again with their 2nd best three point shooter out, Providence expecting them to take a three, and make a consecutive three. Odds of that happening really suck. Too many things would have to go in X's favor to win. The likelihood, even if Providence missed, of X winning was probably less than 15%. When Providence made it with 25 seconds, the odds of winning probably fell below 10. I and great coaches like Bruiser Flint would have fouled.
The 2nd error was not recognizing that Providence had Young in the game, who shoots around 55% from the line. He should have done what Cooley did at Cintas, when they grabbed Jones a couple of times with two minutes to go, and made him go to the line. You tell the ref you're going to impede Young's path, and they'd call a foul. I'd take my chances with a 55% free throw shooter taking a one and one, down four with 55 seconds.
Extending the game was the way to go, imo.