Providence Game Thread

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Anti-Homer
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby Anti-Homer » Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:53 pm

muskieman wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:49 pm
Anti-Homer wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:36 pm
Marshall played a really solid game, but another bone headed hero ball shot with one minute. Steele continues to struggle with in game strategy. Down 4 with 50 seconds to go, and he lets them run the clock down, Even if X makes a three, the odds of winning would have been 10%. A game prior, he doesn't foul GTown, and they miss a 25 foot three to tie. Need a veteran coach with winning experience next to him. His inexperience rears its ugly head far too often.
In the last game, Q said he was going to foul his guy but then the guy started to shoot he backed off. ... Larkin mentioned it as a senior play as a freshman like KyKy might have fouled the shooter like he did tonight a couple of times. As for bone head hero shots, Naji has made a number of game-winning shots this year so I let him take it when the clock is running down.
so I let him take it when the clock is running down.
Of course you would.
X-lucidity
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby X-lucidity » Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:57 pm

AH, I disagree that Steele made an obvious blunder not fouling down 4 with 50 seconds. Sure many coaches will, but many other good coaches will let it ride one more possession. The shot clock was under 23 seconds by that point. So they had to shoot around the 30 sec mark. If they miss, we can look for a quick 2 then begin fouling and extend the game. I agree that your point is valid and that likely 50+ % of coaches would begin fouling then. Just saying it is not the clear-cut brain-dead blunder you assert. We played tough and continue to exhibit courage. Naji played terrifically and even unselfish most of the night. His one late "hero-ball" moment was unfortunate mostly because of when it occurred. Both team fought hard and what an atmosphere the last 12 minutes was. We see our boo-boo's and poor decisions, if you were a Friar fan, you could rattle off many by them. Ultimately, even brushing aside James' 2 missed FT's out of the TO, T-Jones missing a point blank shot that would have put us up one, etc, etc., it came down to Tandy rimming in & out a beautifully stroked 3, then Pipkins swishing his pressure packed 3. That little stretch was a 6pt difference and broke the game their way. To fight back, on the road versus one of the hottest teams in the country, I leave tonight with head held high. Bring that to the court Saturday and we will be just fine....
skyhops
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby skyhops » Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:42 pm

The last few minutes of the game proved that Steele still has a lot of work to do with play calling and game management. A timeout was called with X having 8-9 seconds left on the shot clock and we look like we have no clue what to do and Naji ends end jacking up a 28 ft shot. PU then has the ball and we decide to play a zone (not ideal in forcing a TO and terrible against the 3 and let the clock run down and they hit a three. We then take an ill advised three and game over. Xavier played well in the second half, but we still never had the lead. Once again, can we not foul the 3 point shooter? I thought the foul on James was ticky tac, but for Q to foul a three point shooter is uncalled for. Having Carter guard Diallo not a good idea either. Same old same old.
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby Anti-Homer » Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:48 pm

X-lucidity wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:57 pm
AH, I disagree that Steele made an obvious blunder not fouling down 4 with 50 seconds. Sure many coaches will, but many other good coaches will let it ride one more possession. The shot clock was under 23 seconds by that point. So they had to shoot around the 30 sec mark. If they miss, we can look for a quick 2 then begin fouling and extend the game. I agree that your point is valid and that likely 50+ % of coaches would begin fouling then. Just saying it is not the clear-cut brain-dead blunder you assert. We played tough and continue to exhibit courage. Naji played terrifically and even unselfish most of the night. His one late "hero-ball" moment was unfortunate mostly because of when it occurred. Both team fought hard and what an atmosphere the last 12 minutes was. We see our boo-boo's and poor decisions, if you were a Friar fan, you could rattle off many by them. Ultimately, even brushing aside James' 2 missed FT's out of the TO, T-Jones missing a point blank shot that would have put us up one, etc, etc., it came down to Tandy rimming in & out a beautifully stroked 3, then Pipkins swishing his pressure packed 3. That little stretch was a 6pt difference and broke the game their way. To fight back, on the road versus one of the hottest teams in the country, I leave tonight with head held high. Bring that to the court Saturday and we will be just fine....
X-Luc,

I respectfully disagree with you. After Naji's air ball and Providence's t.o., I looked at the clock, because I knew and feared that if Steele wasn't going to foul against Butler down 7 with 1:10 or so to go, he sure as hell wasn't going to do it down 4 with 55 seconds to go. There were two things wrong with Steele's strategy. First of all, even if Providence missed it, X had 25 seconds to come down and hit a three. We shoot 30% as a team, Providence was looking for it, and the 2nd best three point shooter was injured. Odds definitely were not in favor of a make. Let's say the improbable happened, and X made it, with 15 seconds left. Providence would throw the ball to Duke or Pipkins, who shoot 80% and 90% respectively from the line, and forcing X to foul them. Odds are they make them. That means X would have to come down again with their 2nd best three point shooter out, Providence expecting them to take a three, and make a consecutive three. Odds of that happening really suck. Too many things would have to go in X's favor to win. The likelihood, even if Providence missed, of X winning was probably less than 15%. When Providence made it with 25 seconds, the odds of winning probably fell below 10. I and great coaches like Bruiser Flint would have fouled.

The 2nd error was not recognizing that Providence had Young in the game, who shoots around 55% from the line. He should have done what Cooley did at Cintas, when they grabbed Jones a couple of times with two minutes to go, and made him go to the line. You tell the ref you're going to impede Young's path, and they'd call a foul. I'd take my chances with a 55% free throw shooter taking a one and one, down four with 55 seconds.
Extending the game was the way to go, imo.
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby X-lucidity » Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:36 pm

let's agree to disagree my friend. Again, as stated before, I agree with your strategy and reasoning behind it. Had we not had to blow the extra TO in the first half due to lackluster D, maybe we could have had them better prepared and chosen your route. Especially to have them prepped enough to await the ball landing in a sub 68% FT shooter. But we had only one TO, hard to honker down for an extended fouling session down 4 with 50 seconds left given that. My only point was, on a scale of coaching blunders, I rate it a 5.8. You seem to imply it was a 9.9 brain blunder, that's where I am disagreeing. I can see the logic of one more possession. I myself probably would have fouled, but with only one TO remaining, I can see it both ways.
On to Butler, which as we all suspected heading into these last 3 games, is where the rubber would hit the old road...
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muskieman
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby muskieman » Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:23 am

Anti-Homer wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:53 pm
muskieman wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:49 pm
Anti-Homer wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:36 pm
Marshall played a really solid game, but another bone headed hero ball shot with one minute. Steele continues to struggle with in game strategy. Down 4 with 50 seconds to go, and he lets them run the clock down, Even if X makes a three, the odds of winning would have been 10%. A game prior, he doesn't foul GTown, and they miss a 25 foot three to tie. Need a veteran coach with winning experience next to him. His inexperience rears its ugly head far too often.
In the last game, Q said he was going to foul his guy but then the guy started to shoot he backed off. ... Larkin mentioned it as a senior play as a freshman like KyKy might have fouled the shooter like he did tonight a couple of times. As for bone head hero shots, Naji has made a number of game-winning shots this year so I let him take it when the clock is running down.
so I let him take it when the clock is running down.
Of course you would.
which means I would be more successful than not. Naji has won some big games for us this year
I asked a ref if he could give me a technical foul for thinking bad things about him. He said, of course not. I said, well, I think you stink. And he gave me a technical. You can't trust em.
longliveskip
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby longliveskip » Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:48 am

Anti-Homer wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:36 pm
Marshall played a really solid game, but another bone headed hero ball shot with one minute. Steele continues to struggle with in game strategy. Down 4 with 50 seconds to go, and he lets them run the clock down, Even if X makes a three, the odds of winning would have been 10%. A game prior, he doesn't foul GTown, and they miss a 25 foot three to tie. Need a veteran coach with winning experience next to him. His inexperience rears its ugly head far too often.
so when he makes the decision to NOT FOUL and it WORKS, he's bone-headed and needs help on the bench? SMDH. unreal.
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby longliveskip » Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:58 am

Anti-Homer wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:48 pm
X-lucidity wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:57 pm
AH, I disagree that Steele made an obvious blunder not fouling down 4 with 50 seconds. Sure many coaches will, but many other good coaches will let it ride one more possession. The shot clock was under 23 seconds by that point. So they had to shoot around the 30 sec mark. If they miss, we can look for a quick 2 then begin fouling and extend the game. I agree that your point is valid and that likely 50+ % of coaches would begin fouling then. Just saying it is not the clear-cut brain-dead blunder you assert. We played tough and continue to exhibit courage. Naji played terrifically and even unselfish most of the night. His one late "hero-ball" moment was unfortunate mostly because of when it occurred. Both team fought hard and what an atmosphere the last 12 minutes was. We see our boo-boo's and poor decisions, if you were a Friar fan, you could rattle off many by them. Ultimately, even brushing aside James' 2 missed FT's out of the TO, T-Jones missing a point blank shot that would have put us up one, etc, etc., it came down to Tandy rimming in & out a beautifully stroked 3, then Pipkins swishing his pressure packed 3. That little stretch was a 6pt difference and broke the game their way. To fight back, on the road versus one of the hottest teams in the country, I leave tonight with head held high. Bring that to the court Saturday and we will be just fine....
X-Luc,

I respectfully disagree with you. After Naji's air ball and Providence's t.o., I looked at the clock, because I knew and feared that if Steele wasn't going to foul against Butler down 7 with 1:10 or so to go, he sure as hell wasn't going to do it down 4 with 55 seconds to go. There were two things wrong with Steele's strategy. First of all, even if Providence missed it, X had 25 seconds to come down and hit a three. We shoot 30% as a team, Providence was looking for it, and the 2nd best three point shooter was injured. Odds definitely were not in favor of a make. Let's say the improbable happened, and X made it, with 15 seconds left. Providence would throw the ball to Duke or Pipkins, who shoot 80% and 90% respectively from the line, and forcing X to foul them. Odds are they make them. That means X would have to come down again with their 2nd best three point shooter out, Providence expecting them to take a three, and make a consecutive three. Odds of that happening really suck. Too many things would have to go in X's favor to win. The likelihood, even if Providence missed, of X winning was probably less than 15%. When Providence made it with 25 seconds, the odds of winning probably fell below 10. I and great coaches like Bruiser Flint would have fouled.

The 2nd error was not recognizing that Providence had Young in the game, who shoots around 55% from the line. He should have done what Cooley did at Cintas, when they grabbed Jones a couple of times with two minutes to go, and made him go to the line. You tell the ref you're going to impede Young's path, and they'd call a foul. I'd take my chances with a 55% free throw shooter taking a one and one, down four with 55 seconds.
Extending the game was the way to go, imo.
your rationale leaves out SO MANY OTHER FACTORS of what COULD happen that it's probably not even worth retorting, but i'll try.

1. why do we HAVE to come down with 30 seconds and take a 3 when we're down 4? we can get to the rim for a quick 2, press and create a turnover, create a jumpball (we had the arrow) and get the ball back down 2.

2. i agree on fouling their big guy (if he was in) but sometimes you get called for intentional when you foul off the ball like that. not often, but with the refs we had, who called so many phantom fouls (the one on Freemantle rebound on the FT comes to mind), ya never know.

either way, we had the chances to tie, take the lead, etc and just didn't make the plays. Providence did. that's why they won.
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby X-lucidity » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:29 am

PS. I think "Hops point about that weird timeout with less than 10 sec on shot clock was a bigger blunder by the staff. Yes, we were exhausted and looked disjointed. But to come out of that vital time out, (left us with only one TO), and not be able to run some well communicated action - and be forced to take a panicked fade away 32 foot three..... Inexcusable at that juncture. But I digress. ;-)
Anti-Homer
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby Anti-Homer » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:37 pm

X-lucidity wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:57 pm
AH, I disagree that Steele made an obvious blunder not fouling down 4 with 50 seconds. Sure many coaches will, but many other good coaches will let it ride one more possession. The shot clock was under 23 seconds by that point. So they had to shoot around the 30 sec mark. If they miss, we can look for a quick 2 then begin fouling and extend the game. I agree that your point is valid and that likely 50+ % of coaches would begin fouling then. Just saying it is not the clear-cut brain-dead blunder you assert. We played tough and continue to exhibit courage. Naji played terrifically and even unselfish most of the night. His one late "hero-ball" moment was unfortunate mostly because of when it occurred. Both team fought hard and what an atmosphere the last 12 minutes was. We see our boo-boo's and poor decisions, if you were a Friar fan, you could rattle off many by them. Ultimately, even brushing aside James' 2 missed FT's out of the TO, T-Jones missing a point blank shot that would have put us up one, etc, etc., it came down to Tandy rimming in & out a beautifully stroked 3, then Pipkins swishing his pressure packed 3. That little stretch was a 6pt difference and broke the game their way. To fight back, on the road versus one of the hottest teams in the country, I leave tonight with head held high. Bring that to the court Saturday and we will be just fine....
Agree to disagree on the foul/not fouling point, but we do agree X showed they're capable of playing at a high level even without their most consistent offensive player.

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