Providence Game Thread

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Anti-Homer
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby Anti-Homer » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:39 pm

muskieman wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:23 am
Anti-Homer wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:53 pm
muskieman wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:49 pm


In the last game, Q said he was going to foul his guy but then the guy started to shoot he backed off. ... Larkin mentioned it as a senior play as a freshman like KyKy might have fouled the shooter like he did tonight a couple of times. As for bone head hero shots, Naji has made a number of game-winning shots this year so I let him take it when the clock is running down.
so I let him take it when the clock is running down.
Of course you would.
which means I would be more successful than not. Naji has won some big games for us this year
Yup,

But there was more than 4 seconds on the shot when he forced a three, down four. The analyst echoed my words by saying, "That was no time for hero ball (paraphrasing)."
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby Anti-Homer » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:47 pm

longliveskip wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:48 am
Anti-Homer wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:36 pm
Marshall played a really solid game, but another bone headed hero ball shot with one minute. Steele continues to struggle with in game strategy. Down 4 with 50 seconds to go, and he lets them run the clock down, Even if X makes a three, the odds of winning would have been 10%. A game prior, he doesn't foul GTown, and they miss a 25 foot three to tie. Need a veteran coach with winning experience next to him. His inexperience rears its ugly head far too often.
so when he makes the decision to NOT FOUL and it WORKS, he's bone-headed and needs help on the bench? SMDH. unreal.
Not fouling failed twice (Butler and Providence), and almost failed two more times, when it should have never come close to that. With less than two seconds left, Johns got off a three which Tandy blocked. If not, he would have had a long three attempt. Similarly, against G town, up three with 4 seconds to go, he once again elects not to foul, and they miss a 25 foot three. Any team would gladly take their chances on tying that way, than making two free throws, and having the shooter perfectly throw it off the rim so it bounces high enough for their re-bounder to grab and make in one motion. Waaaay too mnay things have to go perfectly for a tie.

I think his end game management leaves a lot to be desired. As someone who simultaneously guided his daughter's 4th grade and son's 8th grade CYO teams to league titles in the same year (ESPN gave both preseason predictions of 8th and 9th in the league respectively) I think it proves I know what I'm talking about.
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Re: Providence Game Thread

Postby Anti-Homer » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:51 pm

longliveskip wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:58 am
Anti-Homer wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:48 pm
X-lucidity wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:57 pm
AH, I disagree that Steele made an obvious blunder not fouling down 4 with 50 seconds. Sure many coaches will, but many other good coaches will let it ride one more possession. The shot clock was under 23 seconds by that point. So they had to shoot around the 30 sec mark. If they miss, we can look for a quick 2 then begin fouling and extend the game. I agree that your point is valid and that likely 50+ % of coaches would begin fouling then. Just saying it is not the clear-cut brain-dead blunder you assert. We played tough and continue to exhibit courage. Naji played terrifically and even unselfish most of the night. His one late "hero-ball" moment was unfortunate mostly because of when it occurred. Both team fought hard and what an atmosphere the last 12 minutes was. We see our boo-boo's and poor decisions, if you were a Friar fan, you could rattle off many by them. Ultimately, even brushing aside James' 2 missed FT's out of the TO, T-Jones missing a point blank shot that would have put us up one, etc, etc., it came down to Tandy rimming in & out a beautifully stroked 3, then Pipkins swishing his pressure packed 3. That little stretch was a 6pt difference and broke the game their way. To fight back, on the road versus one of the hottest teams in the country, I leave tonight with head held high. Bring that to the court Saturday and we will be just fine....
X-Luc,

I respectfully disagree with you. After Naji's air ball and Providence's t.o., I looked at the clock, because I knew and feared that if Steele wasn't going to foul against Butler down 7 with 1:10 or so to go, he sure as hell wasn't going to do it down 4 with 55 seconds to go. There were two things wrong with Steele's strategy. First of all, even if Providence missed it, X had 25 seconds to come down and hit a three. We shoot 30% as a team, Providence was looking for it, and the 2nd best three point shooter was injured. Odds definitely were not in favor of a make. Let's say the improbable happened, and X made it, with 15 seconds left. Providence would throw the ball to Duke or Pipkins, who shoot 80% and 90% respectively from the line, and forcing X to foul them. Odds are they make them. That means X would have to come down again with their 2nd best three point shooter out, Providence expecting them to take a three, and make a consecutive three. Odds of that happening really suck. Too many things would have to go in X's favor to win. The likelihood, even if Providence missed, of X winning was probably less than 15%. When Providence made it with 25 seconds, the odds of winning probably fell below 10. I and great coaches like Bruiser Flint would have fouled.

The 2nd error was not recognizing that Providence had Young in the game, who shoots around 55% from the line. He should have done what Cooley did at Cintas, when they grabbed Jones a couple of times with two minutes to go, and made him go to the line. You tell the ref you're going to impede Young's path, and they'd call a foul. I'd take my chances with a 55% free throw shooter taking a one and one, down four with 55 seconds.
Extending the game was the way to go, imo.
your rationale leaves out SO MANY OTHER FACTORS of what COULD happen that it's probably not even worth retorting, but i'll try.

1. why do we HAVE to come down with 30 seconds and take a 3 when we're down 4? we can get to the rim for a quick 2, press and create a turnover, create a jumpball (we had the arrow) and get the ball back down 2. Correct, but with this team's IQ, how confident are you that's the path we would have taken? Remember, 30 seconds earlier, Marshall forced a three despite scoring at a high level driving to the rim.

2. i agree on fouling their big guy (if he was in) but sometimes you get called for intentional when you foul off the ball like that. not often, but with the refs we had, who called so many phantom fouls (the one on Freemantle rebound on the FT comes to mind), ya never know. Really? That's your rationale there? You're too smart a poster to forward that.

either way, we had the chances to tie, take the lead, etc and just didn't make the plays. Providence did. that's why they won. Hard to argue with this.

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