BEAT Butler game thread

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Anti-Homer
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Re: BEAT Butler game thread

Postby Anti-Homer » Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:59 pm

X-lucidity wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:08 pm
a resounding THUD.. So crashed the season for our mighty X-men. Fitting, that so many of the issues plaguing us all season all conspired to steal defeat from the jaws of victory yet again. Start with lousy team F/T %, add in some end of game poor coaching instructions, sprinkle in a few late questionable 3pt shots selections when we had them in foul trouble and drives to the basket were proving most successful, then place the cherry on top by allowing the hottest player in the universe to come up court uncontested with the ball for a last second shot, and you have what you deserve...
So now we need to beat Depaul, then Seton Hall, to avoid being ushered into the Not Invited Tournament. Only silver lining there is we avoided a potential Qtr Final potential bloodbath with Nova or Creighton. Neither of which we would have a prayer of winning. At least I give us a 27% chance of beating The Hall. (and a 58% chance of surviving Depaul) So, per my Prf Webb statistics training, that only gives us a 15.6% chance of dancing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ms7KbMfXHp8
Sorry to burst your bubble, but if X gets by DePaul, they will play Nova. One small ray of hope: BracketGuy and Kevin Pulsifer are ranked as the top two bracketologists by the objective site BracketMatrix. Lunardi sits at 55. As of this morning, BG as X as the best of last four in group, and KP as X as a 10 seed. It's still tenuous, but at least for now they're still on the right side of the bubble despite the lousy 3-11 record against Quad One teams.
X-lucidity
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Re: BEAT Butler game thread

Postby X-lucidity » Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:05 pm

aha! Thanks for correction AH. I had seen X versus Seton Hall and forgot that changed once we slipped to play in. So let me revise. 58% chance of besting the Blue Demons. (Sure, many of you would legitimately argue we should be a bigger fave over Depaul than that, but consider, it's on a neutral site where there will be hardly anyone in the stands, Depaul will be playing footloose and fancy free while X will have a swelled Adam's apple, and have you seen us play lately..? ) I will, to be fair, increase our odds of beating Nova from zero to 11%. Because of course anything can happen and maybe Nova's key players catch Bryce-Moore-Itis... So, that then factors to a 6.4% chance of advancing to the semis. Great. Therefore Anti, I will now hang my hat on your speculation that a win over Depaul keeps us with a 50+ % chance of seeing our name called for the dreaded Dayton play-in date.
Hey, as Grandpa used to say: "beggars can't be choosers."
whopper
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Re: BEAT Butler game thread

Postby whopper » Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:43 pm

I am not unhappy with Bryce Moore and sympathize a bit. He has not been 100% and was bought in to 3 and D. He took 2 good open 3's and I think one was near the end of the shot clock. I know from experience (but not good results) and a substitute dreams of hitting the big one and that passing up an open look will screw up the offense. Good luck to him and all the X players and if we beat DePaul (good chance I can't go from Conn as last train is 11:30 and a half hour away) but I will go Thursday as I did last year to see Villanova (and saw the phantom charge first hand)
X-lucidity
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Re: BEAT Butler game thread

Postby X-lucidity » Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:51 pm

whopper, I now feel guilty and publicly apologize. I do like Bryce Moore, love the fact he chose us for his grad-eligible season. Feel lousy for him as well as he wanted to come here and experience an NCAA tourney bid. He has come in, practiced hard, and never complains. No one wanted to hit a few shots yesterday more than Bryce. I was only joking that maybe that affliction will beset a few Nova players. That loss yesterday sucks in every facet. Has us all writing loathsome crap. I am going to think positive. - I honestly believe, provided Paul is ready to get back on the court, that we could be an interesting team should we sneak into the dance.
joeabe
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Re: BEAT Butler game thread

Postby joeabe » Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:05 pm

I intended to head to NYC for the BE tourney! However, I think I'll take a pass this season. If TS does not recruit some players with the ability to shoot straight , we are in for some lean years ahead!! We need a point guard, we need a team leader on the court. Our coach will mature in his role and hopefully stay for the long term?
xavier71
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Re: BEAT Butler game thread

Postby xavier71 » Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:10 pm

I believe the BracketMatrix takes in more than just predicting who's in and out (seeding etc.). When it comes to just projecting the field Lunardi is one of the best. He's constantly within one or two of picking the entire field. Last year he was 67/68, so if he says we're out, then I'm worried. Fortunately Jerry Palm, who also picked 67/68 (both missed Belmont), has X still in. It could possibly come down to the same as last year: beat Villanova and you're in, lose and you're in the NIT.

To avoid the bubble all we had to do was beat Butler. Even if we lost to SH we were still in. In my 65 years of watching X, this has to be one of the most frustrating. Same excuses, same mistakes. How do you let the best player on the floor shoot two threes (not the final one) with no one even guarding him? How do you let the best player on the floor constantly get in the lane and allow Butler to shoot 57% from 3 against our man defense and never consider going to a zone? Why do you keep shooting 3's? Why can't you make free throws? Etc, Etc.

I'm also growing tired of hearing TS is learning and maybe a good assistant would help. I don't disagree. A good assistant always helps, but he has now coached more than 60 games and was an assistant coach for 9 years. If he wasn't ready to go day one then maybe he shouldn't have been hired.
bluegrass
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Re: BEAT Butler game thread

Postby bluegrass » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:14 am

joeabe wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:05 pm
I intended to head to NYC for the BE tourney! However, I think I'll take a pass this season. If TS does not recruit some players with the ability to shoot straight , we are in for some lean years ahead!! We need a point guard, we need a team leader on the court. Our coach will mature in his role and hopefully stay for the long term?
I'm hoping next years recruits along with this year's freshmen will be the answers.Odom is supposed to ge a big time recruit. Better hope so. Steele's career is depending on it
Anti-Homer
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Re: BEAT Butler game thread

Postby Anti-Homer » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:49 pm

thecoach wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:34 am
I won't get into it, but i thought it was a pretty clueless coaching effort defensively. He's good, but they were not ready or reactive to what they were doing. He(Travis and his staff) was severely out strategized in the match up.
Yup. Reminiscent of the St. John's game at MSG, when it was painfully obvious after the first ten minutes that X should have gone to zone, as opposed to doing it in the last four. They would have won going away if the adjustment was made much sooner.
XU2011
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Re: BEAT Butler game thread

Postby XU2011 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:20 pm

xavier71 wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:10 pm
I believe the BracketMatrix takes in more than just predicting who's in and out (seeding etc.). When it comes to just projecting the field Lunardi is one of the best. He's constantly within one or two of picking the entire field. Last year he was 67/68, so if he says we're out, then I'm worried. Fortunately Jerry Palm, who also picked 67/68 (both missed Belmont), has X still in. It could possibly come down to the same as last year: beat Villanova and you're in, lose and you're in the NIT.

To avoid the bubble all we had to do was beat Butler. Even if we lost to SH we were still in. In my 65 years of watching X, this has to be one of the most frustrating. Same excuses, same mistakes. How do you let the best player on the floor shoot two threes (not the final one) with no one even guarding him? How do you let the best player on the floor constantly get in the lane and allow Butler to shoot 57% from 3 against our man defense and never consider going to a zone? Why do you keep shooting 3's? Why can't you make free throws? Etc, Etc.

I'm also growing tired of hearing TS is learning and maybe a good assistant would help. I don't disagree. A good assistant always helps, but he has now coached more than 60 games and was an assistant coach for 9 years. If he wasn't ready to go day one then maybe he shouldn't have been hired.
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Yes, last year I thought the team did get better as the season wound down. This year it hasn’t. Same mistakes game in..game out. Missed FT, unforced turnovers, stupid charging fouls.

We don’t run any offense...pass around the perimeter, force it inside to a guy being doubled and then slinging it outside for a guy to force up a 3 as the shot clock expires is not “running an offense. No cutting, no movement, no passing. A lot of standing around.

Granted some even average 3 pt and FT shooting would solve many problems.

Maybe we’ll get hot this week..I do think the potential is there to be a “tough out”. Go X.

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