Bracketology

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oldhoopster
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Re: Bracketology

Postby oldhoopster » Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:32 pm

XU is now listed along with UC as last 4 in, with both being 11 seeds and playing in separate play-in games in Dayton. Not a good position to be in. I think X has to beat Butler this weekend. Either way they'll probably end up the 7 seed and play DePaul on Wednesday. That game is a killer if they lose and haven't beaten Butler. Safe thing would be to beat both to lock themselves in, but that's certainly not a given with this team's inconsistencies both in shooting and turnovers. Would be nice to start limiting TOs to closer to 10 than 20.
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XavierBob
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Re: Bracketology

Postby XavierBob » Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:44 pm

That is Lunard’s prediction only. Check out the bracket matrix. It is a compilation of many brackets and is usually pretty accurate. As of today X is safely in with a pretty big buffer of teams that would have to pass us on the s-curve. A Butler win would probably lock us in but I think we could take a loss. Would have to win on Wed. Night at MSG though.
Anti-Homer
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Re: Bracketology

Postby Anti-Homer » Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:45 pm

XavierBob wrote:
Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:44 pm
That is Lunard’s prediction only. Check out the bracket matrix. It is a compilation of many brackets and is usually pretty accurate. As of today X is safely in with a pretty big buffer of teams that would have to pass us on the s-curve. A Butler win would probably lock us in but I think we could take a loss. Would have to win on Wed. Night at MSG though.
XB,

I think X is in as of today, but I'll be nervous if they lose to Butler, beat Depaul, and lose the next game. If they beat Butler, I think thy're in regardless. Also, keep in mind that of the dozen of alleged bracketologists,, only a small fraction are legit. Many simply put out brackets by pirating info from guys like Jerry Palm and Lunardi, or simply use the NET to guide picks. It's a great way to get ad revenue.

Lastly, of the ones who are legit, as defined by allegiance (ESPN, CBS Sports, SI, and a couple of others), all but one have X in as the last four byes or better. Lunardi is the only one with X as one of the last four in. It's unfathomable to me that UC is even in the same breath. They have less Q-1 wins (two to date), and three really bad losses. Many of the other ones have both UC and WSU out, as it should be.
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muskieman
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Re: Bracketology

Postby muskieman » Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:06 pm

Mike DeCourcy as us In the East as an 11 facing #6 Auburn
I asked a ref if he could give me a technical foul for thinking bad things about him. He said, of course not. I said, well, I think you stink. And he gave me a technical. You can't trust em.
yellow20xd
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Re: Bracketology

Postby yellow20xd » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:39 am

USA Today is bullish on the Big East... Dan

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 998615002/
“Wins go on the mantle. Losses go in your soul."
Xavier2005
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Re: Bracketology

Postby Xavier2005 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:55 am

X is among the first 4 to 8 out. Their record speaks for itself. X does NOT deserve to be in the NCAA tournament based on regular season play and their overall record. 2 years wasted.....new coach not going to get it done.
tacitus
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Re: Bracketology

Postby tacitus » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:07 pm

Same story every year we are not a lock. Masochist fans start shouting "NIT"!

Look, we are not a lock. And a lot can happen this week. We will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday if we lose our first game in the BE tourney. But we are fairly safely in right now. The fact that the Big East blow the field away in the NET and that we have a solid resume as a result are our saving graces this year. (Despite inexperienced coaching…)

Joe Lunardi is the most famous bracketologist. But he is at best average at his job. He tends to predict the field accurately, but is not very good at predicting the seeds. The best source is the Bracket Matrix, because it aggregates all the experts. (Kind of like how Fivethirtyeight is the best at aggregating polling data and predicting the results of elections.)

The best bracketologists are the ones who are the best at predicting the seeds: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

We are looking at a 10 seed right now. We could move down or even out of the field if nothing goes our way. But the safe money is on us getting a bid.

A happy read: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... 998615002/
Let's March!
Anti-Homer
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Re: Bracketology

Postby Anti-Homer » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:45 pm

tacitus wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:07 pm
Same story every year we are not a lock. Masochist fans start shouting "NIT"!

Look, we are not a lock. And a lot can happen this week. We will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday if we lose our first game in the BE tourney. But we are fairly safely in right now. The fact that the Big East blow the field away in the NET and that we have a solid resume as a result are our saving graces this year. (Despite inexperienced coaching…)

Joe Lunardi is the most famous bracketologist. But he is at best average at his job. He tends to predict the field accurately, but is not very good at predicting the seeds. The best source is the Bracket Matrix, because it aggregates all the experts. (Kind of like how Fivethirtyeight is the best at aggregating polling data and predicting the results of elections.)

The best bracketologists are the ones who are the best at predicting the seeds: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

We are looking at a 10 seed right now. We could move down or even out of the field if nothing goes our way. But the safe money is on us getting a bid.

A happy read: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... 998615002/
Nice summary,

But I don't think we're safely in, but do agree we're on the right side of the bubble now. The problem is most likely, the best X can hope for is a win on Wed., against an NIT team. Nova has more talent overall, and even worse, rents space in X's head due to the the shellacking they took twice a year under the guidance of Chris Mack. Assuming X only wins one, I think they'll be in if there are few bid "stealers" (UC, Purdue, etc).
TheX-Man
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Re: Bracketology

Postby TheX-Man » Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:05 am

XU being in the field of 68 simply comes down to Wednesday and Thursday. Three possible outcomes:
1) X beats both DePaul and Villanova = NCAA lock regardless of anything that happens in other leagues.
2) X loses to DePaul = NIT
3) X beats DePaul buts loses to Villanova = Big time sweat on selection Sunday but likely out. Inevitably, a couple of teams in other leagues would probably earn their way in at the expense of a bubble team like X. Under this scenario X may only have one Quad 1 win. Simply not good enough which is why the Villanova win is the true key to an at large bid at this point.
longliveskip
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Re: Bracketology

Postby longliveskip » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:52 am

TheX-Man wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:05 am
XU being in the field of 68 simply comes down to Wednesday and Thursday. Three possible outcomes:
1) X beats both DePaul and Villanova = NCAA lock regardless of anything that happens in other leagues.
2) X loses to DePaul = NIT
3) X beats DePaul buts loses to Villanova = Big time sweat on selection Sunday but likely out. Inevitably, a couple of teams in other leagues would probably earn their way in at the expense of a bubble team like X. Under this scenario X may only have one Quad 1 win. Simply not good enough which is why the Villanova win is the true key to an at large bid at this point.
wrong. if # 3 happens, we are IN.

mark it down.

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