XU's Decade-By-Decade Improvement

[Xpectations]

I'm still amazed at the degree that XU has improved since my freshman year in 1980. It's been a remarkable run.

I had a debate recently with UC fans who claim XU will never make a Final Four, giving all sorts of reasons it won't happen. Many said we "backed into" this year's Elite Eight since we didn't have to play any expected higher seeds (another somehow said we backed into both Elite Eight appearances), prompting me to point out that same logic would nullify Huggins' only Final Four appearance and his first Elite Eight.

I'm certain those same fans believed that XU would never win a single game in the NCAA Tournament pre-1980, would never reach a Sweet Sixteen throughout the '80s, and would never reach the Elite Eight while observing them in the '90s. And now they believe we've once again reached our peak potential despite overwhelming evidence that the train just keeps on steaming forward -- not sideways, and certainly not backward.

Here's a look at XU throughout the decades in the NCAA Tournament. I've consolidated all seasons prior to 1980 into one category.

Decade . . . . . . Games . . . . . . . Wins . . . . . Top Finishes
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-1980 . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . 0. . . . . . . . .No Wins Ever
1980s . . . . . . . . . 6. . . . . . . . . . . 1. . . . . . . . .Round of 32
1990s. . . . . . . . . 11 . . . . . . . . . . 5. . . . . . . . .Sweet Sixteen
2000s. . . . . . . . . 16 . . . . . . . . . . 9. . . . . . . . .Two Elite Eights

And we obviously still have next year remaining in the current decade.

Recruiting: another important area of improvement - I recall XU having only one 4-star player (Price) prior to Coach Miller's arrival (perhaps others can confirm). Since Miller took over we've added three 4-star players: Lavender, Jackson and Frease, and we're on the very short list for many 4-star (and one 5-star) athletes in the Class of '09.

As with meteorologists, you may justifiably question the forecasting ability of recruiting services. But there is a clear, observable correlation across the entire population of players over the years that higher-rated high school players have tended to be better college players than lower-rated players.

There are obvious exceptions, and fortunately we've been the beneficiary of several of those under-ranked players (e.g., Hill, Grant, West, Burrell). But rather than always relying on spotting under-the-radar diamonds in the rough, Coach Miller is proving that he and XU can compete, and win, when going up against the big boys for top-tier, high-on-the-radar talent. Don't underestimate the significance of that step forward as we look to continue our improvement in the coming seasons.

Coaching continuity is important in all of this, especially recruiting. Players want to be as confident as possible that the coach they signed on when graduating from high school is the same coach that will shake their hands at center court during their final year of college.

I'm getting to the point where I question whether Coach Miller is planning to leave at all -- regardless of circumstances. It’s becoming clear that at a minimum, the list of possible destinations outside of XU is extremely small – even if it isn’t nonexistent.

Coach Miller is certainly saying a lot of things both publicly, and supposedly privately to recruits, that he wants to remain at XU. And it appears we're able to pay him commensurate with elite coaches, including significant raises the past few seasons.

XU being the only non-BCS school in the Forbes Top 20 in terms of financial status/power means that we're likely not even at our ceiling yet in terms of financial commitment, especially once the Cintas is paid off.

Also, Coach Miller has shown he can put together a tremendously challenging schedule, RPI and national ranking by scheduling top OOC teams. This strips away an important, built-in advantage that BCS teams tend to have, given that they're usually guaranteed a half dozen or more Top 50 opponents each season because of conference affiliation.

Overall, this multi-decade improvement has been dramatic and consistent. More importantly, it has been across many critical dimensions: NCAA Tournament appearances, seeding, victories and deeper runs, recruiting success and stature, hoops income and ability to provide top-tier financial compensation, RPI, SOS, ranking and ability to create top OOC scheduling.

Whether we win a National Championship in my lifetime is difficult to predict. But I'm completely confident we'll be right there competing for them with a small handful of other teams.

[muskienick]

This post is one of the most clearly-written, intelligent, and informative ones that I have seen on any message board ever. The fact that it has to do with Xavier Basketball may cause me to have a little bias, but your presentation of Xavier's progression toward excellence over the last 4+ decades should cause even the likes of Dustin Dow to take notice (and have a bit of envy).

Great job!

[muskienick]

In addition to your well-painted picture of the overall progress of the program, one must certainly concur on your points about Coach Miller.

I now look back in wonder at the second-guessers and nay-sayers who were highly-critical of Xavier's Administration 4 years ago when it named Sean Miller as Head Coach of the Muskie Basketball program shortly after we lost our last coach. Certainly, none of had a crystal ball at the time that allowed us to see how Coach would further the progress of the program and set its goals at the highest levels. But the fact remains, Mike Bobinski had a heavy hand in Sean's selection, if only indirectly. And what other Administrator in XU's history (other than Father Hoff) commands more love and respect from the Muskie family?

[Xpectations]

Nick, I agree. I have some similar analysis on the "Miller Years" that I'll likely post next week.

[timcarris]

Wow what a great post! Should be nominated for the hall of fame. Although I knew we were climbing the ladder of basketball success, I have never looked at it in this way by decade.

This post gives evidence of our improvement and just how far we have come. Here Here!

[wkrq59]

Expectations,
Outstanding analytical, factual and unemotional post. As one who spent 40 years in a business which demanded those qualities I salute you.

[Xpectations]

Q, knowing your background, I'm humbled. Thank you very much.