The RPI Indicator

[jamal4xu]

I wish I could take credit for the research that went in to this, but with all the debate about the RPI on selection sunday, this is interesting to take note of:

"• Your national champion probably will come from the RPI top 10, and almost certainly from the RPI top 15.

Seven of the last nine champs had a top 10 RPI heading into the tournament. All nine were in the top 15. But only one of them was ranked No. 1. The list:

2007 -- Florida No. 6
2006 -- Florida No. 15
2005 -- North Carolina No. 6
2004 -- Connecticut No. 5
2003 -- Syracuse No. 9
2002 -- Maryland No. 2
2001 -- Duke No. 1
2000 -- Michigan State No. 13
1999 -- Connecticut No. 3

Most prominent team outside the top 15 in the current RPI: Connecticut. Most prominent teams outside the top 10: Wisconsin, Stanford, Louisville. Current No. 1: Tennessee.

• Your national champion will have tested itself against strong competition and will have passed the test.

The last nine champs all played at least nine games against RPI top 50 competition and all of them had a winning percentage of at least .625 against that top 50. The list:

2007 -- Florida 8-4
2006 -- Florida 6-3
2005 -- North Carolina 6-3
2004 -- Connecticut 10-6
2003 -- Syracuse 8-4
2002 -- Maryland 9-3
2001 -- Duke 11-2
2000 -- Michigan State 10-6
1999 -- Connecticut 10-2

Only eight teams fit that criteria (through Saturday games). They are:

North Carolina (19): 8-1 - EAST REGION
UCLA (20): 11-2 - WEST
Texas (21): 11-3 - SOUTH
Tennessee (22): 11-4 - EAST
Kansas (23): 7-2 - MIDWEST
Xavier (24): 9-4 - WEST
Stanford (25): 7-4 - SOUTH
Duke (26): 7-4 " - WEST

Anybody for 1 in 8 odds at a National Title?

[jamal4xu]

This is somewhat similar to another study on ESPN that came out about 4 weeks ago and we matched up well then too!

Does anyone have the final RPI numbers? I'd like to see how are opponents end of year numbers compared.

[WCWIII]

Does anyone have the final RPI numbers? I'd like to see how are opponents end of year numbers compared.

Up to date RPI calculation: Link.

Through conference tourney, also look at recent history: Link.

Almost every postseason criticism of the RPI was nonsense. We hear from DD (and others) that the selection committee uses RPI primarily to highlight top 25, 50, and 100 wins. The fact that a team's RPI goes up mid-season even with a loss is meaningless too. It's the RPI at the end of the season that counts for the selection (Bilas should know this, after all he went to Duke). At other times, it is a formula and an indicator with flaws different than other indicators.