Musketeer Madness

Today's Enquirer story http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ ... 9/1065/SPT includes a graphic showing X's rebounding numbers for every game this season. We've lost the rebounding battle only four times-Miami, ASU, Tennessee and Temple.

Of all the problems we thought we had (or might have had) in those four losses, clearly losing the rebounding battle was a constant. So, that's something to keep an eye on the rest of the way.

I think you misread the table. The 4th column is "Game Winner".

X lost the rebounding battle against Temple, ASU, UC, Indiana, Kent, and Miami.

They are 3-3 when they get outrebounded.

Good point. Haste once again makes waste.

So we lost the rebounding battle in 3 of our 4 losses, but also in 3 wins. Hmmm, I'll have to mull this over and see what it means, if anything.

As a rule of thumb, if you get outrebounded, it's going to be tough to win.

I think rebounds played a huge role in the miami game, because it was so close in the end. A couple rebounds, offensive or defensive, could have won it for us.

The other games we lost due to multiple factors, rebounding just being one. For instance, if you have a low shot percentage, expect the other team to also outrebound you, because defensive boards come easier. Hustle also simultaneously affects boards, and where the hustle is focused. If we focus on double/triple teaming one player, or swarm a team defensively, we might force a lot of turnovers, and hence get less boards, yet still come out on top. So many factors to consider at once...

However, retrospectively, maybe a few crucial rebounds (especially a couple offensive) could have changed the whole momentum and story of the game. You just never know how that ball is going to bounce. A basketball game is such a complicated phenomenon to understand by looking at just one variable. Yet all that matters as who scored the most points in the time alloted.

Here is a more complete analysis of wins and losses given the "big 4" (Well, 3 of the big 4. I don't like the free-throw-rate stat)

Effective Field Goal %
Times winning: 16. Record: 16-0
Times losing: 4. Record: 0-4
[Pretty conclusive. We win when we shoot the ball more effectively than our opponent. There is a reason this is considered the most important stat]

TO%
Times winning: 9. Record: 7-2
Times tieing: 4. Record: 4-0
Times losing: 7. Record: 5-2
[Pretty inconclusive. The game where it seemed to matter the most was against Tennesse, when we turned it over 28.8% of the time, and forced only 13.7%. Huge disparity. On the other hand, they also shot better. Just barely.]

OR%
Times winning: 20. Record: 16-4
[Very inconclusive. It seems to not matter]

Surprisingly, X has not lost the rebounding battle once this year. The closest they came was against Miami. We got 26.4% of the offensive rebounds, and they got 24.5%. Again, we were also out shot. Again, just barely.

defensive rebounding?
shots taken?
threes taken?
three point %? (the stats on threes are huge for us)
paint points?
paint percentage?
% / shots taken? would also be interesting. Maybe you don't get many looks at the basket, but get a lot of easy shots or something.
stats regarding fouls might also be crucial, for some teams. Memphis, for example, was challenged by Gonzaga today, because they cant hit jack from the line. Memphis is a final four team at best, unless they get that together. They will face talent in the tournament, so if they don't get the freebies... who knows when they might go out.
capitalization on various stats, i.e. turnovers, ORs, DRs, etc.

others?

various combinations?