2021-22 schedule for 2021-22

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Anti-Homer
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Re: 2021-22 schedule for 2021-22

Postby Anti-Homer » Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:53 pm

tacitus wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:45 am
And for the record: I did not claim that the Big East is the best league in 2021-22. Nor have I made any predictions on how many bids we will get in March. I prefer retrospective analyses based on performance over speculative predications based on biased assumptions! But... if many teams in the Big East have strong OOC performance and then beat up on each other so bad that we only get three bids in March, then I suppose I will have another season of data to support my description of the Big East as a "meat grinder".
Me thinks your plethora of posts contradicts your claim of," I prefer retrospective analyses based on performance over speculative predications based on biased assumptions!," unless 7% of the sample qualifies as good retro analysis. Also, the strength of the SOS has been built on the backs of teams like Nova, SH, and Creighton. How many top 25 games has X played in the Steele era. A meat grinder to me insinuates high quality parity. Does that characterize the BE in the last three years? Top heavy league in that span.
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muskieman
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Re: 2021-22 schedule for 2021-22

Postby muskieman » Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:13 pm

Anti-Homer wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:53 pm
tacitus wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:45 am
And for the record: I did not claim that the Big East is the best league in 2021-22. Nor have I made any predictions on how many bids we will get in March. I prefer retrospective analyses based on performance over speculative predications based on biased assumptions! But... if many teams in the Big East have strong OOC performance and then beat up on each other so bad that we only get three bids in March, then I suppose I will have another season of data to support my description of the Big East as a "meat grinder".
Me thinks your plethora of posts contradicts your claim of," I prefer retrospective analyses based on performance over speculative predications based on biased assumptions!," unless 7% of the sample qualifies as good retro analysis. Also, the strength of the SOS has been built on the backs of teams like Nova, SH, and Creighton. How many top 25 games has X played in the Steele era. A meat grinder to me insinuates high quality parity. Does that characterize the BE in the last three years? Top heavy league in that span.
do you know the history of the Big East? What do you consider top-heavy?
I asked a ref if he could give me a technical foul for thinking bad things about him. He said, of course not. I said, well, I think you stink. And he gave me a technical. You can't trust em.
kyzrex
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Re: 2021-22 schedule for 2021-22

Postby kyzrex » Sat Nov 20, 2021 7:02 am

As of right now…...ESPN has 6 BE schools in the tourney, and 2 others in the first 4 out category. I’ve also heard some announcers/analysts from other networks say that the BE could get anywhere from 5-8 teams into the dance.

Based on the eye test during the Gavitt games, I’d say that there is a lot of talent in the league. Marquette is certainly better than anyone expected, having knocked off both Wisconsin and WVU already to remain undefeated. DePaul (gasp!) even looks to have some talent and ability to play together under a new coach.

Who can really project the future with much accuracy, but Right Now, the BE looks to be pretty solid from top to bottom. It’s no more “top heavy” than any other league and seems to be, and less so than most from what I’ve seen. Granted it is a small sample, but what else does anyone have to go on?
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tacitus
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Re: 2021-22 schedule for 2021-22

Postby tacitus » Sat Nov 20, 2021 12:28 pm

Anti-Homer wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:53 pm
tacitus wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:45 am
And for the record: I did not claim that the Big East is the best league in 2021-22. Nor have I made any predictions on how many bids we will get in March. I prefer retrospective analyses based on performance over speculative predications based on biased assumptions! But... if many teams in the Big East have strong OOC performance and then beat up on each other so bad that we only get three bids in March, then I suppose I will have another season of data to support my description of the Big East as a "meat grinder".
Me thinks your plethora of posts contradicts your claim of," I prefer retrospective analyses based on performance over speculative predications based on biased assumptions!," unless 7% of the sample qualifies as good retro analysis. Also, the strength of the SOS has been built on the backs of teams like Nova, SH, and Creighton. How many top 25 games has X played in the Steele era. A meat grinder to me insinuates high quality parity. Does that characterize the BE in the last three years? Top heavy league in that span.
My plethora of posts still make no claims about where the BE (or Xavier) will be at season's end. It is definitely too early to predict how many bids any conference will get. But, 7% of the season's data definitely tells us where things stand after 7% of the season, or whatever % of the season has been played so far. As far as rankings go, how many ranked teams did any of Steele's predecessors play during the regular season? I do not even have to dig up the data to say with 100% certainty that Xavier has consistently played more ranked teams (and generally faced a much tougher schedule) since joining the Big East for the 2013-14 season. Playing ranked teams before conference play is just a huge bonus! And, having looked at the data, no Xavier team in history has faced a (much) tougher non-conference schedule than this one. Some teams may have faced a comparable schedule, but none have face a much more difficult schedule. We will have at least two games against ranked teams. Oklahoma State is talented and is still getting votes despite an early loss. Iowa State will not be a push over on a neutral site. And we will know a lot more an UC after their game against Illinois. And, finally, meat grinder means the exact same thing to me. Since 2014 the Big East has consistently been one of the best three or four leagues in terms of non-conference record, conference RPI and conference NET (see data from Warren Nolan below). During most of those years, we have rarely had one team that was title contender, except for Nova and one year us (and Nova). Unlike the leagues that were better than us on paper, the Big East rarely had true bottom feeders. The power five leagues always have a few teams that are sub-150. We have sometimes never had a single team that was sub-100 (or just barely). We always have a team or two that gets beat up during conference play, but those same teams usually took out at least one really good team before conference play and are prone to beat one or two of the top BE teams during conference play. In all of our years in the BE, we have had so many games that we "should win", but I cannot recall one gimme game going into it. There is little doubt in my mind that if we did the complete math, we would seen that of the top 4-5 leagues over the past 8 years, the Big East had the most parity, despite having multiple 1 seeds and two national championship teams during the same stretch.

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X-lucidity
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Re: 2021-22 schedule for 2021-22

Postby X-lucidity » Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:50 pm

Nice research and points by Tacitus, I tend to agree. I am fine with schedule as things are playing out. Some solid points made above regarding concern for too many cupcakes but may turn out to be the best formula. Case in point, we have three post players rounding into shape. Nunge, although a lifesaver Thursday, still not back 100% into playing shape. Big Ben Stanley also just getting back into the mix. Freemantle obviously at least 2 more weeks away. This limits the rotation development and chemistry that we will have by mid December. I think the NIT will offer a better RPI challenge that we realize, and mixed in with the Buckeyes, OSU and those pesky Bearcats, provide plenty of tier 1 scenarios. Then you plunge into Big East play and into the grind. So, this could wind up being just what the Dr. ordered. The saga continues....
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Re: 2021-22 schedule for 2021-22

Postby Anti-Homer » Sat Nov 20, 2021 5:20 pm

kyzrex wrote:
Sat Nov 20, 2021 7:02 am
As of right now…...ESPN has 6 BE schools in the tourney, and 2 others in the first 4 out category. I’ve also heard some announcers/analysts from other networks say that the BE could get anywhere from 5-8 teams into the dance.

Based on the eye test during the Gavitt games, I’d say that there is a lot of talent in the league. Marquette is certainly better than anyone expected, having knocked off both Wisconsin and WVU already to remain undefeated. DePaul (gasp!) even looks to have some talent and ability to play together under a new coach.

Who can really project the future with much accuracy, but Right Now, the BE looks to be pretty solid from top to bottom. It’s no more “top heavy” than any other league and seems to be, and less so than most from what I’ve seen. Granted it is a small sample, but what else does anyone have to go on?
Completely agree with your point about the league four games into the season. My point is the league has only had 3 or 4 teams who were tourney caliber ones, or had a fighter’s chance of playing beyond the first weekend during Steele’s tenure prior to this year During CM’s tenure, the league had one or two years when up to eight teams were tourney caliber prospects. That's parity. Also, in two of those years, the BE had two teams who even had top two seeds. Unfortunately, we know how that turned out for X.
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Re: 2021-22 schedule for 2021-22

Postby Anti-Homer » Sat Nov 20, 2021 5:37 pm

tacitus wrote:
Sat Nov 20, 2021 12:28 pm
Anti-Homer wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:53 pm
tacitus wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:45 am
And for the record: I did not claim that the Big East is the best league in 2021-22. Nor have I made any predictions on how many bids we will get in March. I prefer retrospective analyses based on performance over speculative predications based on biased assumptions! But... if many teams in the Big East have strong OOC performance and then beat up on each other so bad that we only get three bids in March, then I suppose I will have another season of data to support my description of the Big East as a "meat grinder".
Me thinks your plethora of posts contradicts your claim of," I prefer retrospective analyses based on performance over speculative predications based on biased assumptions!," unless 7% of the sample qualifies as good retro analysis. Also, the strength of the SOS has been built on the backs of teams like Nova, SH, and Creighton. How many top 25 games has X played in the Steele era. A meat grinder to me insinuates high quality parity. Does that characterize the BE in the last three years? Top heavy league in that span.
My plethora of posts still make no claims about where the BE (or Xavier) will be at season's end. It is definitely too early to predict how many bids any conference will get. But, 7% of the season's data definitely tells us where things stand after 7% of the season, or whatever % of the season has been played so far. As far as rankings go, how many ranked teams did any of Steele's predecessors play during the regular season? Ya gotta get off the word ranked, dadgummit. High quality, not necessarily ranked teams, and not littered with multiple sub 200RPI teams. I do not even have to dig up the data to say with 100% certainty that Xavier has consistently played more ranked teams (and generally faced a much tougher schedule) since joining the Big East for the 2013-14 season. Agreed, but once again, I said Steele’s NC schedule has been Cronin like during his UC days. CM’s also left something to be desired, but was still more competitive than Steele’s. Also, the BE was considerably better top to bottom in the preceding years before Steele took over, so a less challenging NC schedule was more forgivable during tourney time. Playing ranked teams before conference play is just a huge bonus! And, having looked at the data, no Xavier team in history has faced a (much) tougher non-conference schedule than this one. Some teams may have faced a comparable schedule, but none have face a much more difficult schedule. We will have at least two games against ranked teams. Oklahoma State is talented and is still getting votes despite an early loss. Iowa State will not be a push over on a neutral site. And we will know a lot more an UC after their game against Illinois. And, finally, meat grinder means the exact same thing to me. Since 2014 the Big East has consistently been one of the best three or four leagues in terms of non-conference record, conference RPI and conference NET (see data from Warren Nolan below). Once again, you keep changing the argument. Being one of the best leagues doesn’t necessarily equate to parity. After the top three or four teams in the BE during Steele’s tenure, I believe the drop off has been pretty significantDuring most of those years, we have rarely had one team that was title contender, except for Nova and one year us (and Nova). Unlike the leagues that were better than us on paper, the Big East rarely had true bottom feeders. The power five leagues always have a few teams that are sub-150.Of course they do, but they also often have four or more teams with top 6-7 seeds in the tourney, and 2-4 more teams in the tourney We have sometimes never had a single team that was sub-100 (or just barely). During Steele's tenure? We always have a team or two that gets beat up during conference play, but those same teams usually took out at least one really good team before conference play and are prone to beat one or two of the top BE teams during conference play. In all of our years in the BE, we have had so many games that we "should win", but I cannot recall one gimme game going into it. There is little doubt in my mind that if we did the complete math, we would seen that of the top 4-5 leagues over the past 8 years, the Big East had the most parity, despite having multiple 1 seeds and two national championship teams during the same stretch. Rinse-repeat. My posts which you took great umbrage with, refer to X during Steele’s era. I suppose we’ll just not see eye to eye which is ok, but I prefer X’s performance during CM’s time in the BE over Steele’s. Hopefully, this year will be different.



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Re: 2021-22 schedule for 2021-22

Postby Anti-Homer » Sat Nov 20, 2021 5:40 pm

X-lucidity wrote:
Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:50 pm
Nice research and points by Tacitus, I tend to agree. I am fine with schedule as things are playing out. Some solid points made above regarding concern for too many cupcakes but may turn out to be the best formula. Case in point, we have three post players rounding into shape. Nunge, although a lifesaver Thursday, still not back 100% into playing shape. Big Ben Stanley also just getting back into the mix. Freemantle obviously at least 2 more weeks away. This limits the rotation development and chemistry that we will have by mid December. I think the NIT will offer a better RPI challenge that we realize, and mixed in with the Buckeyes, OSU and those pesky Bearcats, provide plenty of tier 1 scenarios. Then you plunge into Big East play and into the grind. So, this could wind up being just what the Dr. ordered. The saga continues....
It is playing out well for both X and the league so far, and for X's sake, let's hope the early returns don't implode into year end meltdowns like the previous three years.
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Re: 2021-22 schedule for 2021-22

Postby Anti-Homer » Sat Nov 20, 2021 5:45 pm

muskieman wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:13 pm
Anti-Homer wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:53 pm
tacitus wrote:
Tue Nov 09, 2021 4:45 am
And for the record: I did not claim that the Big East is the best league in 2021-22. Nor have I made any predictions on how many bids we will get in March. I prefer retrospective analyses based on performance over speculative predications based on biased assumptions! But... if many teams in the Big East have strong OOC performance and then beat up on each other so bad that we only get three bids in March, then I suppose I will have another season of data to support my description of the Big East as a "meat grinder".
Me thinks your plethora of posts contradicts your claim of," I prefer retrospective analyses based on performance over speculative predications based on biased assumptions!," unless 7% of the sample qualifies as good retro analysis. Also, the strength of the SOS has been built on the backs of teams like Nova, SH, and Creighton. How many top 25 games has X played in the Steele era. A meat grinder to me insinuates high quality parity. Does that characterize the BE in the last three years? Top heavy league in that span.
do you know the history of the Big East? What do you consider top-heavy?
Do you mean when it was the best league in the country year in and out? Yes, that was when they had teams like Syracuse, Louisville, and WVA (when all three were often very good). Nova certainly didn't dominate it like the new BE. However, I have know idea what the history of the old BE has to do with the new BE in the Steele era .
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muskieman
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Re: 2021-22 schedule for 2021-22

Postby muskieman » Sat Nov 20, 2021 10:40 pm

Anti-Homer wrote:
Sat Nov 20, 2021 5:45 pm
muskieman wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:13 pm
Anti-Homer wrote:
Fri Nov 19, 2021 5:53 pm


Me thinks your plethora of posts contradicts your claim of," I prefer retrospective analyses based on performance over speculative predications based on biased assumptions!," unless 7% of the sample qualifies as good retro analysis. Also, the strength of the SOS has been built on the backs of teams like Nova, SH, and Creighton. How many top 25 games has X played in the Steele era. A meat grinder to me insinuates high quality parity. Does that characterize the BE in the last three years? Top heavy league in that span.
do you know the history of the Big East? What do you consider top-heavy?
Do you mean when it was the best league in the country year in and out? Yes, that was when they had teams like Syracuse, Louisville, and WVA (when all three were often very good). Nova certainly didn't dominate it like the new BE. However, I have know idea what the history of the old BE has to do with the new BE in the Steele era .
What do you consider TOP-HEAVY?
I asked a ref if he could give me a technical foul for thinking bad things about him. He said, of course not. I said, well, I think you stink. And he gave me a technical. You can't trust em.

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