Musketeer Madness

X -9 per http://www.scoresandodds.com

What do you guys think. The line on that site has moved to -8.5. What percentage of teams win when they are favored by 8+. I think its sort of high with all the trouble we've had there. I could see this being a nailbiter/tossup. Make no mistake, IF we win this game we are in great shape in conf (SJU loss to DUQ tonight). I think the key is not falling behind big and playing D for the entire shotclock. St L seems like such a Jekyl and Hyde team, getting blown out by UDUMP, then beating RI and Umass. Vegas must have some faith in X to give us 8+.

Any experienced gamblers care to chime in on this line/ why its where it is/ too high, low etc. I/we'd be very interested in your opinions.

I am not a very serious gambler but I do know a few things.

1) The public tends to choose favorites so lines tend to be a bit higher than what line setters truely believe the favorite will win by.

2) This is negated or confounded by the which two teams are playing.

Duke - UNC lines are usually very close to what the setters believe a team will win by because the public knows both teams very well.

Xavier - Saint Louis lines will be a bit off. This is because the public sees a highly ranked team playing a not-so-well-known team and will naturally go with the favorite.

I would guess that the line setters in Vegas believe Xavier will win by about 5 points but if they set the line at -5, Joe Public and all his buddies will bet heavily on Xavier. Since Vegas' main concern is making half the people bet on Xavier and half on Saint Louis, they set it at 9.

Correct me if I am wrong on this.

For what it's worth the closest margin of victory or defeat in a road/neutral game we've played this year is 8 points against GW.

The line is moving down... X-8 at this point...someone is doing their homework...

x should win this game comfortably. st. louis just doesn't have the horses to keep up. i would be surprised if x wins by less than 12.