Interesting correlation in 3 losses

[xutiny]

In looking at three of our losses this year (Miami, Temple, and Arizona St), I noticed that these teams play at a strikingly slow tempo/pace. Kenpom.com has the stats here:

http://www.kenpom.com/stats.php?y=2008&s=4

This metric essentially calculates the # of possessions per 40 minutes of play.

Miami (OH) - 59.0 poss/40 min National Rank=337
Arizona St. - 62.5 poss/40 min National Rank=315
Temple - 65.4 poss/40 min National Rank=250

For frame of reference, the average of all 341 D-1 teams is a tempo of 67.6 poss/40 minutes.

This may be a total anomaly, but it appears that a combination of a (somewhat) talented team + road game + slow pace could equate to trouble for our Muskies. We beat a tough UMASS team on the road, but they play at an incredible pace (78 poss/40 We did beat Fordham (63.9 pace) and Dayton (65.0), who also play at a very slow pace, but those were home games and other variables played into those wins (i.e. Dayton's injuries and overall suckiness).

Based upon that, in looking forward, the remaining road games on our schedule and their respective pace/tempo:

St. Louis - 59.4 poss/40 min National Rank=335 - scary pace--possible let-down game?
Charlotte - 69.4 poss/40 min National Rank=100 - relatively fast pace
Rhode Island - 73.3 poss/40 min National Rank=20 - good pace for us; similar to UMASS
Dayton - 65.0 poss/40 min National Rank=260 - we won't lose @ Dayton
Saint Joseph's - 66.8 poss/40 min National Rank=195 - really tough final road game

We already know the remaining 5 road games will be tough, but this is meant to provide some analysis on a few games we could squeeze out. I would take 2-3 wins out of the 5 and be very happy.

Is this an anomaly or is there some truth to the above analysis?

[Pizza Delivery]

Nice work. I think there's some room for argument in your favor. Slower paced teams aren't as threatened by our depth, that's my first thought. Something about "feel" in three point shooting may be effected by slower pace as well, as evidenced by the poor shooting in those losses.

[xualum]

I am a big fan of Ken Pomeroy and his tempo free stats.

But, the Miami loss was more about game management at the end of the game, than Redhawks play at such a slow tempo. It was an early game on the road against an area rival.

We are also one of the top defensive teams in the country, in the top 40 with adjusted d-ppp defensive points per possession according to Pomeroy. We are also #4, I believe in adjusted o-ppp, which is adjusted points per possession on offense.

I am not so concerned about the tempo of the game X plays in, but how the defense holding plays.

[tacitus]

"St. Louis - 59.4 poss/40 min National Rank=335 - scary pace--possible let-down game?"


St. Louis has managed to slow us out of our game 3 out of 4 times with their zone. I am very scared of playing in St. Louis. In fact, that is the only place I'm scared of playing left on the schedule, because it is our only (real) chance for a BAD loss. We should crush them... but we should have crushed them the last four times.

But if I say this stuff too loud, I will be accused of being a UC fan again and start a fight between MM loyalists and confederates.

[xualum]

SLU takes too few shots, is unable to create turnovers, unable to hit the offensive glass and takes too few free throws.

Why are you worried? SLU doesn't have the horses.

I imagine that Stanley will guard Lisch and BJ will guard Liddell.

[tacitus]

I agree that they are a weak team... but they weren't exactly strong teams the last three times they beat us, and now they have a better coach. Fine, we should blow them out. I agree. But if we don't...

Let's just put this on the back burner until after tonight.

[CarlosTheJackal]

I dont want to start a thread about this, but Stanley has never had a decent shooting game at St. Louis. Now that his load is down to 8-10 shots a game, I am hoping he can relax and let the scoring be spread around.

Two very tough games this week, and the team has to fly back late Thursday and get ready for St. J on Sunday. Not quite as tough as the famous Philly to St-Louis back to back last year, but still a push.

Oh and there is that #15 target on our backs now.

[tacitus]

I dont want to start a thread about this, but Stanley has never had a decent shooting game at St. Louis. Now that his load is down to 8-10 shots a game, I am hoping he can relax and let the scoring be spread around.

Two very tough games this week, and the team has to fly back late Thursday and get ready for St. J on Sunday. Not quite as tough as the famous Philly to St-Louis back to back last year, but still a push.

Oh and there is that #15 target on our backs now.

I agree about Stanley. He deserves the praise he is getting for his defense and energy and leadership. He has found his place on this talented team. Keep it up Stan! At the same time, thank God he doesn't feel the urge to force as many shots. He is a streaky shooter and when he is off, he was known to still keep shooting (last year).

Also, we will be moving up in the rankings tomorrow, so we will be higher than 15 when we go to St. Louis.

I had a dream that we crushed them (I had a video game view of the game, and there was also lots of polka dancing... don't ask), but after waking up I am once again worried. Our balanced scoring should help, because if we get three in double figures, well... they might not even score 30. I think that is our key in St. Louis... spreading it around until we figure out who the zone breaker is. Find the hot hand on the perimeter and lots of cutting/driving to the basket. We should be fine. I just think this game is a lot more important than some think, because of the well deserved disrespect we would get if we lose it. But we won't...

[xualum]

The key to beating SLU is to not let Meyer, Polk, Eckerle or Eberhardt have big games.

[xuhuh!]

St Louis has Won/Loss every other game of last 6. hard to say which will show up. X will have their attention. X needs to start off well, they have had some rough outings there. stay on litsch's left hand and don't put him at the line. liddel and meyer need good defense, too. if X can start well, keep the crowd and refs out of it