Expectations

[George Remus]

I am curious to hear what extreme fans (those that frequent this board in April through September) expect of XU’s program next season. I remember the bar was set ridiculously high after XU’s last Elite 8 appearance and while XU will not be graduating the likes of Sato and Chalmers, the team will lose three excellent performers that will not be easily replaced.

When XU lost Doellman, Cage and Cole I was a bit worried but I thought Duncan would take on Doellman’s role and that Cole would be replaced by Love’s production. Add in CJ to the mix and I was not too concerned with what XU would produce in the post. Doellman was an excellent passer which seemed difficult to duplicate but as we all saw, XU shared the ball extremely well this past season in his absence.

I was concerned mostly with XU’s lack of a shut down defender and player who would be unselfish enough to do the little things for a team that do not always show up in the stats. To my (and many others) surprise, that role was filled and filled well but the least likely of suspects – Stanley Burrell. Basically, XU was not hurt by the departure of three big time contributors and even excelled in areas I expected to be troublesome.

Can XU “replace” this year’s losses like they did this previous season? Do fans, specifically those here expect a top 3 seed and deep runs in March on a yearly basis, every few years, every 10?

Here are my thoughts on the two separate questions above and I apologize for the long post upfront. Considering there is about one post per day, I would hope most would welcome the discussion.

Can XU “replace” Lavender, Burrell and Duncan?

The short answer is yes. XU has proven time and again that the program is more than one star player (West, Larkin) or even one great class that carries XU to great heights that are never seen again. I have heard for decades now from the XU haters and pessimists that “well XU was great this year but after so in so is gone, XU will be back to their mediocre ways”.

How they are replaced is a much better question that I am not sure I have an answer.

Duncan presented match-up problems with his 3 point shooting and size on the wing when he played away from the basket. He was no slouch in the post but hardly West-like. I think his post production can be absorbed nicely by Love and the incoming Frease.

Can Brown improve his outside touch to Duncan type accuracy? If he can, Brown will be a very tough match-up as he has a much better first step to punish those that play him tight on the perimeter. With the 3 point line being pushed back a foot, his ability to be a consistent long range threat may be too much to ask. Duncan did sometimes fall in love too much with the outside game, so it may be a push if Brown picks up his per game scoring from all places on the floor. I also think Anderson will step it up another notch and be a real post threat all season for XU.

For as brilliant as Burrell was defensively this year, he was often held in check equally on the offensive end. While XU did not need him to score most nights, can a player’s increased scoring production offset Burrell’s tremendous defensive efforts?

Right now, I think Dante will get the start at shooting guard unless the freshman (Lyons/Halloway) cannot impress Sean at PG in October and November. I think Dante can become a great defender, maybe not as good as Burrell was all of last season, but serviceable enough and I think he will score more than Burrell did last season or at least be more consistent of a scorer.

That brings us to “replacing” Lavender. I simply don’t see this happening early in the season if at all next season as Lavender was one of the best to ever play that position at XU. I have nightmares of the Finn/Dupree Lucas/Odia era every so often and do not care to repeat them this season. I admit I know very little about the incoming players. I have read all about them on this board and others but I am always hesitant to think any incoming player will be as good as advertised until they start to play in some real games.

I have faith in Miller that XU will be a very capable team on both sides of the ball. I have watched enough of him as a coach to be confident that with the returning players and incoming talent that XU may not “replace” what Lavender brought but present different solutions for XU and problems for their opponents. XU will not be the same team next season but they certainly should be a good team that has the potential to be great.

Now for the other question, XU went 30-7, garnered a three seed and went to the Elite 8 all while being ranked in the top 25 to top 15 for most of 2008. It was possibly XU’s best team ever. History shows that XU has been to two Elite 8’s and one other Sweet 16 in roughly 100 year of basketball. I do not think history can be that much of an indication on XU’s future as we all know, XU’s program is in a much better state with a much greater potential than at any other time. That being said, Kansas just won their first National Championship in 20 years.

Sometimes expectation can be a bit unrealistic for any and all programs. I like to think I would be content with XU being a regular NCAA participant with some second weekend runs mixed in every so often. Can XU really win a National Championship? I think they can but it will be a once in a lifetime event that will be a perfect storm of great players and a bit of “luck” in March - Kansas was damn lucky Curry decided to pass on the last shot this year.

My expectations are for XU to regularly compete for top 6 seeds in the NCAA tournament. With a top 6 seed, XU should be in a consistent position to make runs in the Tournament. To consistently obtain top 6 seeds that will mean XU will need to win around 24 games a year, playing equally well both in and out of conference. These expectation may seem too high for some and too low to others. One thing is certain, XU is on the right track and their impressive growth over the last 20 years show no signs of slowing and will hopefully continue to grow.

[muskieman]

expect true_blue to be keep his panties in a bunch until Sean get over a million dollars.

[Mr. Neutral]

Lots of good thoughts in there, GR, and here's a few of mine.

Last things first. I don't think it's reasonable for us to expect X to be a regular Elite Eight participant; the vast majority of schools aren't at that level, including consistently good Big Six schools. But we can make regular 2nd round/Sweet 16 appearances, with more occasional Elite Eight/Final Four (dare we hope?) appearances. And we'll have our share of 1st round losses, like every other program, including Arizona, Kansas, Duke, etc.

As to next year's team, it might be a more traditional team, but good in other ways.

CENTER-you have to assume that Love will continue to progress, especially offensively, and Frease will give us help off the bench. Overall, I'm not sure how much of drop-off we'll see.

PF-Similar to Love, if Brown improves as much as he did this year, we'll be fine. I'm not too worried about his developing a 3-pt. shot; I'd be happy if he developed a consistent 10-15 ft. jumper. He's going to have to take and make that shot. McLean may press DB for time, especially if McLean's the inside bruiser we've been led to believe he is.

SF-Now that C.J.'s got a season of higher level Div. I ball under his belt, I'd like to see his ballhandling improve (definitely) and his offensive range expand a little. If Raymond makes the same jump next year that he made last year, he's in the mix as well for either a starting position, or, at the least, consistent and big minutes.

SG-I, too, have to feel that this is Jackson's job to lose, with Raymond and Graves behind him. DJ's got to get a more consistent jumper; I think he's OK everywhere else.

PG-As of now, it's got to be Lyons or Holloway, and I haven't seen either, so I can't make the call as to who the starter will be.

Walsh, Redford and Taylor all seem to have the luxury of developing behind our returning players.

This team can be as good or better than last year's team; whether they have a better record or not is hard to tell. It's tough to replace senior leadership.

[muskieman]

If I could have one thing in next year's squad, I would like to see Graves develop into the O and D player Sean is looking for in his two guard. His shot is so sweet but his understanding of the game plan is so lacking. I hope that last year was his freshman year shake out (he played so little his real freshman year) and this year he breaks out and becomes the surprise of the returning players.

[Benxu]

If I could have one thing in next year's squad, I would like to see Graves develop into the O and D player Sean is looking for in his two guard. His shot is so sweet but his understanding of the game plan is so lacking. I hope that last year was his freshman year shake out (he played so little his real freshman year) and this year he breaks out and becomes the surprise of the returning players.

Everyone keeps saying how Graves' shot is "oh so sweet," but I don't see it. OK, so you can make 3's in practice and summer league. So what? Graves was by far the worst perimeter shooter on the team this year (what was he, about 15% from beyond the arc?), and he had plenty of perfect, wide open looks as teams focused their defense on our other players. Until Graves can prove in a game that he can actually knock down some shots, he is NOT a good shooter.

C'mon Adrion, prove me wrong!

[Mr. Neutral]

Valid point, Ben. Graves has a good-looking shot, but he actually only shot .357 from the floor and .240 from the arc.

Stunningly, Graves had only 1 FT attempt all year in 276 minutes, the lowest of all the scholarship players, and only 1 more attempt than Duckett and Hughes! Even Bronson had 12 attempts in 25% of the playing time.

He did have 33 boards, only 7 less than Jackson, who had 90 minutes more PT.

Graves had a better assist/turnover ration (21-13) than Jackson (20-21), and only 2 less steals than Love, who had almost 400 more minutes.

I, like mm, think the talent is there. Whether we see it next year is the big question.

[muskieman]

Ben I don't deny your points, that is why I said IF I could have one thing. IF Graves could live up to his potential, we would see a very good player, we would see a very good shooter.

[X-man]

I don't want to raise expectations too high here but at the basketball banquet last week, I heard indirectly from someone very close to the coaching staff that they expect next year's team by season's end to be better than this year's team. And the following year.... At last year's banquet, I had a coach tell me directly that this year's team would be better than last year's team after I got through telling how I thought last year's team was the most talented overall of any team I had seen at Xavier. That coach was dead right, as we now know, so I hope the assessment for the next couple of years is similarly accurate.

[Mr. Neutral]

I would tend to agree with that assessment. I think the talent level on the roster, top to bottom, continue to get better and better. Will that translate into another 30-win Elite Eight season? That's a tougher call, especially when you think of all the things that have to go right to have that kind of season.

Think of that 4-game stretch where we beat SLU, SJU, Charlotte and URI by a total of 12 points. Lose a couple of those games and maybe we get a worse seed, lose in the 1st or 2nd round, and it's a totally different year. Or if Joe Alexander makes a free throw and we don't get to the Elite Eight.

So, I think we can be excited about next year's team without predicting a duplicate of this year.

[wkrq59]

There is one word that sums up all the hopes and aspirations most of us have for 2008-09--PATIENCE.Until Sean can develop some serious chemistry, melding the 7 newcomers with the 6 returnees, this team will struggle.
Count Graves, who has had precious little PT, among the newcomers and you have 8 players with little or no D1 college experience. Defense will dictate who starts and plays most and who learns.
Position by position:
#1--Dante will probably start yielding by mid-season or sooner to Holloway and Lyons. Dante knows the offense and has shown some defensive prowess.
#2--BJ starts yielding eventually to Dante, followed by Redford and Walsh. I believe the ability to score and even more defend will make the difference.
#3--CJ starts and shares the position with Brown, McClean, Walsh and Graves in no particular order.
#4--Brown starts and shares the position with McClean and maybe the other transfer (Taylor?) and CJ and even Love.
#5--The first few games Love starts, then Frease starts and Love plays a similar role to that of Duncan, followed by McClean and even Brown and Taylor.
Critical to the fluidity and identity of this team are:
1)The development of a consistent point guard who has to be the leader and run the show. It's asking a helluva lot to think either Holloway or Lyons can just step in take over from Day One. How quickly those two can free Dante to be the 2 will determine much of the success of this team.
2)The continued improvement of BJ and Adrion as offensive threats at the 2, and the switch of Dante back to what is probably his more natural position will be key.. Redford has to provide both instant offense and the ability to get to the free throw line where his contributions could be huge.
3)CJ, BJ, Walsh and Taylor and maybe even Brown need to provide depth and defense at the three. If one can dominate and take 15 -20 of the 40 minutes a game available at the position, leaving the other four to share roughly 5 to 7 minutes a game, this could be one heck of a deep team, especially on defense.
4) Brown, McClean and maybe Walsh and/or Taylor should share this spot, again with one dominant and the other three sharing the munites, especially on the defense. rebounding will be crucial for these 4.
5) Fouls will determine the length of playing time here with defense the key to who plays more. I believe after Frease-Love or Love-Frease, McClean and Taylor-Brown will each have a certain role.
Overall, I see Sean playing 10-11 players on a regular basis, determined primarily by defense.
As far as records are concerned, I see tough sledding on the road early, with winning the buy games and the tipoff tournament or whatever it's called after Puerto Rico being very important. I believe it's unrealistic to expect the team to win the PR championship. There are three games to be played I believe and two wins would be nice.
The key to continuing to be ranked is winning all the buy games and the opening tournament and the Big 6 home games. A good record heading into the A10 play will be important because it will be very difficult for Xavier to run away and hide as they did in the two past seasons.
I think this team can win enough to make the tournament, perhaps by winning the A10 tourney, but until that chemistry is developed, all bets are off. `