Sweet 16 game thread

[muskieman]

FRIDAY 9:45 PM CBS

Texas' last trip to the Sweet 16 was in 2008 same year X was there. They are returning to the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, the site of Texas’ Big 12 Tournament championship, and unless X fans travel, it will be like a home game for Texas.

Texas is #5 in the AP, #7 in the coaches poll, #5 in the BPI, and #6 in the Barttovik. Texas averages 77.8 points per game, while their opponents average 67.2. Like X, they are an older, experienced team built with transfers but with a couple of McDonald All-Americans. They are not big but very, if not extremely, athletic. No 7 footers but the guys they do have worked effectively against bigger players.

Interim head coach Rodney Terry took over in January from Chis Beard, (A story for another time) and guided Texas to a Big 12 Tournament Championship. He has a connection to Xavier as he coached a certain player names Souley Boum for two years at UTEP.

Marcus Carr was considered one of the top transfers from Minnesota when he came to Texas. He leads the charge for Texas with 15 ppg and 4 assists, and 1.7 steals but can be inefficient at times when taking shots. He also can take over a game so he can not be forgotten

In the Texas “game of 32” win over Penn State, their 6’9” forward DYLAN DISU put Texas on his back and scored 28 points and 10 rebounds. He broke the school’s NCAA Tournament record with 14 made field goals on 20 attempts, breaking a record previously shared by Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge. He usually averages a little over 9 points per game, but since the Big 12 tournament has become a go-to guy. Over the last five games, including Texas' run to the Big 12 Tournament title in Kansas City, DISU is averaging 18 points (on 72 percent shooting, 39-of-54) and nine rebounds. He is the man to stop, and Jack needs to stay out of foul trouble doing it.

In the Penn St game, Texas had three players in double-figure, with one of the three off the bench in 6’4” guard SIR'JABARI RICE. RICE love to head fake and draw fouls, and X has a habit of falling for the head fake, so Sean has to be on the guys not to take the bait, much like Creighton did to X.

Texas is chock full of talent and athleticism and has the ability to force our guards into tough situations. They also can light up the scoreboard from three, especially Sir’Jabari Rice, who nailed seven threes off the bench against Colgate. However, he can be streaky and only shot 1-6 from the three against Penn St.

Texas has many scoring options, so if X focuses on stopping Disu, then SJR, Carr, Hunter, Bishop( you might remember him from Creighton), Allen, or even Morris or Cunningham can step up and make a team pay.

As homage to Anti Homer, Penn State switched to a zone defense, and the Longhorns, who were 1-of-13 from 3-point range, went cold, failing to score a point for more than (3) three minutes, missing four straight shots, including a missed layup by Allen.

Texas plays nine men, so their depth is better, but one of those bench players, SIR'JABARI RICE, plays starter minutes with 20 minutes or more. Texas’ overall depth and athleticism will be something X must contend with in this game. X needs to get DISU and BISHOP in foul trouble, and Jack and Jerome need to take it to them, as do the guards.

My takeaway is that Jack needs to be able to dominate inside, and Hunter needs to keep playing at the level he played this week. It would be nice to see Adam keep hitting those deep threes to stretch the Texas defense as he did to Pitts. If not him, then somebody. Colby has to be in NIT MVP Colby mode like last year, and we must guard their perimeter shooters. We will need Des and Edwards to be productive. My fear is foul trouble on our big guys and their coach’s experience coaching Souley. Be physical because Texas will be physical. We saw in the Pitt game how fouls can change the game for Xavier's opponents. Texas is much better than Pitt. Somehow X needs to get Souley hot again.

[Lead Guitar]

Sounds a bit like a Villanova type of teams, especially the head fakes and athleticism. Never know how the refs will call the game.

[edgecliff hall]

Thanks muskieman for that post, which would make a good horror movie. I am anxious, as always, to see what Anti has to say.

[muskieman]

Thanks muskieman for that post, which would make a good horror movie. I am anxious, as always, to see what Anti has to say.

I think he will be as magnanimous as he always thinks he is

[pdxmuskie]

Based on that assessment, X is unlikely to win. In my opinion, you oversell the TX athleticism. They don't jump out as super athletic compared to many of the SEC teams. That is precisely why I didn't think they were a terrible matchup for X. That being said, if Nunge gets in foul trouble or X is not shooting well, it is unlikely to end favorably for Xavier.

Looking at the stats for TX, they rebound as a group with no one averaging 6 rebounds a game. Some of that is certainly related to depth but it is also because they are undersized in the post. Xavier also typically rebounds as a team in addition to Nunge getting close to 8 a game. Rebounding can give X the edge if everyone attacks the glass and boxes out.

The lack of size for TX could allow Edwards to compete. Edwards has looked solid in a couple games where the other team lacked a big post presence. Depending on Edwards to play big minutes isn't likely to work but if he can be productive for about 12 minutes, it will help with fatigue.

If Xavier gets after it on the defensive end, rebounds, values possessions and shoots decent they will be the better team. Unfortunately, doing all those things may still end up in a loss simply because of the depth issue. Playing a talented, deep team is going to be difficult to avoid foul trouble. Nunge plays smart D, typically staying vertical but mistakes are made by players and the officials will call what they call. TX will likely try to draw offensive fouls on Nunge and Hunter, especially if it is the same refs as last game.

This will be a great win if X can pull it off. We have the talent, just need to execute on the court.

[X-lucidity]

ball is ball..... As SM stated in his interview last eve on 700WLW, it don't matter anymore who was seeded or ranked ahead or behind anyone. At this time of year, it's who is playing at their best and who can come out and impose their will from the jump. We will need to make some shots - but then TX will also need to make some shots. X has a puncher's chance, and I can assure you, the TX team, coaches and fan base are just as worried about us.
One thing I know for sure, our boys are gonna show up and start swinging...

[pdxmuskie]

Xavier got a shoutout on CNBC today. Ryan Detrick of Carson Group, not sure if he is an Alum.

[muskieman]

guards win NC and guards get teams to the NC games PERIOD. Big guys are needed but they do not determine the winners in the tournaments. Look at all the big guys , Garza, Edey, Colburn, Jackson-Davis five time all americans 2 times player of the year yet they together have totaled only 1 sweet 16 in their 14 seasons. Jack will be important but X's guards will be the guys that get us to the promised land On the other hand the MVP of the NC games are guards; Ochai Agbaji 2022, guard Jared Butler 2021, guard Kyle Guy 2019, guard Donte DiVincenzo 2018, guard Joel Berry II 2017, guard Ryan Arcidiacono 2016, guard Tyus Jones 2015, guard Shabazz Napier 2014 see a trend here?

It will be the guys like Souley, AK, and especially Colby that will take us past Texas, past the elite team TBD and the final four game to the national title game. Colby did it last year and I hope he does it this year on the big stage.

[pdxmuskie]

It is true that dominant guard play tends to be a deciding factor in who advances but there are a few additional considerations.

Big men get into foul trouble much more frequent. A guard can more easily adjust their defensive play and even how they attack the rim to stay on the floor. Bigs are therefore less dependable in a single elimination tournament.

Most teams have depth in the post to defend the paint. The depth may not be as skilled offensively but they can typically slow the other team's big man and help when guards drive the lane. Xavier has no depth behind Nunge so he is probably more important than the starting Center on most teams.

As I previously said, Edwards may be serviceable in this game because TX bigs are undersized. Xavier could also go small but they only go 1 deep on the bench at the guard spot. Xavier is long, so going small would be easy to do if they had depth at guard.

Keep in mind, when Nunge got in foul trouble vs Creighton, his defense became horrific as he feared getting another foul. He was a huge defensive liability. That game turned into a blowout. I believe Free also had foul trouble that game. Consider how Pitt attacked the rim much more frequently when Nunge was on the bench in foul trouble.

[muskieman]

Sean's pre SW 16 game press conference https://youtu.be/94bWWmOGgn4